Trends to finish this week and into next week

Still sitting short at 4805, at the time of recording I was slightly in the negative, but since we have pulled back down as expected and I'm in a profit zone. The trends are well explained in the video, but most important takeaway is that a new 4hr downtrend coming in below 4808 will signal a lower low, as will a 6hr downtrend coming in below 4759. These two movements would open us up, in accordance with trends, to further movement down.

Trends are as follows;

Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 4817 Uptrend (1/12/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 4807 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Higher Low
2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 4770 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Lower High
6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High

Economic Data;
PPI is today, I don't see it have a major weight into the market though as we had CPI, which weighs more heavily, yesterday.

Geopolitical;
US and British forces hit Houthi targets, furthering tensions in the Middle East. This is why Oil has rocketed up 4% thus far on the day. The higher oil goes, the more that price could bleed into inflation, and also the tension could cause some concern for supply-chain issues.

Side Note;
I did go Long on two ZMZ24 (Soybean Meal for December maturity) contracts yesterday at 360. I plan to hold until around 370 and evaluate further to see if they will reach the 'predicted' target of 401. I do not trade Soybean products often, it is more of a oversold historically position than a knowledge of how Soybeans work.

My sentiment going forward in the ES Futures Market is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral
Long Term - Bullish

Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.

Comentário:

So, I've come to realize this new site I was looking at for the earnings calendar is faulty and missing companies, as JPMorgan reported and that is not listed there. I shall continue to look for a new website to check for earnings since FinScreener does not appear to be coming back up.

Comentário:

Found one on a website called Strike Market... 6 companies reporting today, mostly in the financial sector.

Comentário:

Additionally, just FYI my MACD Momentum Algorithm says the CURRENT week we are in, is signaling a Sell Signal.

For reference the last weekly signals over 2023 were as follows;
11/6/2023 - Buy Signal closing at 4424
9/18/2023 - Sell Signal closing at 4362
7/31/2023 - Sell Signal closing at 4498
5/8/2023 - Sell Signal closing at 4132 (This was a BAD Signal)
2/27/2023 - Sell Signal closing at 4052

So these signals resulted in 80% successful predictions. In historical analysis, it has been as low as 60% in previous years. So it is not a guaranteed prediction by any means.

Comentário:

I had someone mention the Head and Shoulders pattern in the current ES price peaks. For reference, I don't really believe in H&S patterns for the most part, H&S patterns are just a shift in trends... on the uptrend, getting into higher highs and lower lows, before shifting into lower highs and more lower lows. Every H&S pattern is basically that occurring in my trend algorithm.

Comentário:

So I did not end up taking a small profit before I went negative last time when we pushed up on Friday. I may do that this time, not to change my stance, but to potentially grab a better entry point, maybe somewhere around 4820.

Earnings today are mostly bank earnings. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Discover. Prologis (industrial) is reporting today also, not sure that will have a major impact on the overall market.