The failure to break out or down has me thinking price may try to push up and make one more high before rolling over. Additionally, the technicals are not registering any major room for price to decline in a big way. This has prompted me to include an alternative purple count on the above chart. This means B already completed and we're now completing only our a of C of larger b higher towards 4300. I want to be clear this is an alternative viewpoint as of the time of my morning update.
So whether we're topping in purple a, or topping in our black b, but we're topping nonetheless. The negative divergences now on the ES micro below...
...and the SPX cash index are stark.
What will determine if purple or black prevails is ultimately the wave structure once moving to the downside. The black count requires a C wave down. That should be a 5-wave structure. Whereas purple only needs a 3 wave structure to fulfill a minor b. So we wait for price to first break 3950 to tell us we have topped and to start tracking our decline. In either scenario, I do not think we're headed to new lows. This decline should be considered a reset to push to our larger b-wave target of 4300 or 4500.
Best to all,
Chris
So whether we're topping in purple a, or topping in our black b, but we're topping nonetheless. The negative divergences now on the ES micro below...
...and the SPX cash index are stark.
What will determine if purple or black prevails is ultimately the wave structure once moving to the downside. The black count requires a C wave down. That should be a 5-wave structure. Whereas purple only needs a 3 wave structure to fulfill a minor b. So we wait for price to first break 3950 to tell us we have topped and to start tracking our decline. In either scenario, I do not think we're headed to new lows. This decline should be considered a reset to push to our larger b-wave target of 4300 or 4500.
Best to all,
Chris
Nota
If we do manage to make OMH, and based on the manner in which that happens, I may add to my short position.Nota
Can price stretch to 4041? Lets see.
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