6/30: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
In the last week, we saw the ES put in a 6-day buyable pullback leg, forming a textbook bull flag pattern. The bottom of this pattern was found at the 4372 support level, leading to a 60+ point rally higher. This pattern once again demonstrates the predictive power of simple chart patterns. We are now heading into a period of Holiday Trading, which is traditionally a strong period. Can ES keep its momentum up?
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World Headline
China manufacturing PMI shows continued contraction, but Chinese equity markets up on expectation of further stimulus.
Key Structures
The key structures to watch are the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel. These structures provide the broad trend and context for the daily price action.
Support Levels
The major support levels are at 4420-22, 4400-5, 4390-93, 4374-76, 4350-53, 4346, 4334, 4318, 4295-4300, and 4286. These levels are key for bulls to hold in order to keep the rally going.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are at 4440-45, 4460, 4480-85, 4503, 4520, 4545, 4555, and 4568-71. If we breakout higher, shorts are risky. The 4460 level in particular is a spot to watch for a potential pullback.
Trading Plan
The bull case for today is that as long as 4420 or 4400-4405 holds, bulls can continue base building above 4420, targeting a push higher to 4445 and then 4460. The bear case is that if 4374 fails, look for shorts. There is also a riskier breakdown short on the fail of 4420.
Wrap Up
We remain in a consolidating market to setup a move. ES tried to breakout a bull flag yesterday and the loose lean is that as long as 4420 or 4400-05 holds, we can push to 4445 and then 4460. 4372 remains the must hold final support and below there look for shorts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
In the last week, we saw the ES put in a 6-day buyable pullback leg, forming a textbook bull flag pattern. The bottom of this pattern was found at the 4372 support level, leading to a 60+ point rally higher. This pattern once again demonstrates the predictive power of simple chart patterns. We are now heading into a period of Holiday Trading, which is traditionally a strong period. Can ES keep its momentum up?
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
World Headline
China manufacturing PMI shows continued contraction, but Chinese equity markets up on expectation of further stimulus.
Key Structures
The key structures to watch are the falling channel from the June highs, the 4374 level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel. These structures provide the broad trend and context for the daily price action.
Support Levels
The major support levels are at 4420-22, 4400-5, 4390-93, 4374-76, 4350-53, 4346, 4334, 4318, 4295-4300, and 4286. These levels are key for bulls to hold in order to keep the rally going.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are at 4440-45, 4460, 4480-85, 4503, 4520, 4545, 4555, and 4568-71. If we breakout higher, shorts are risky. The 4460 level in particular is a spot to watch for a potential pullback.
Trading Plan
The bull case for today is that as long as 4420 or 4400-4405 holds, bulls can continue base building above 4420, targeting a push higher to 4445 and then 4460. The bear case is that if 4374 fails, look for shorts. There is also a riskier breakdown short on the fail of 4420.
Wrap Up
We remain in a consolidating market to setup a move. ES tried to breakout a bull flag yesterday and the loose lean is that as long as 4420 or 4400-05 holds, we can push to 4445 and then 4460. 4372 remains the must hold final support and below there look for shorts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
