After-Market Analysis: Patience in Play Amid ES_F's Narrow Range
We witnessed a choppy session today, mainly pinned at 4135. The market fluctuated between 4155-4130, indicating the possibility of a breakout pushing up the levels to megaphone resistance. The bearish case will start with the failure of 4131.
Today's session was marked by a continued consolidation within a narrow range for ES_F. The market has been in a tight range for the past week, with closing prices consistently falling within 1% of the 4130 zone. This is one of the tightest consolidations we've seen in years, and it's a consequence of the May 4th/5th rally and the options expiry week.
We saw the ES_F put in a notable 6 daily candles stacked tightly side-by-side in approximately a 60-point range, likely the tightest range since the March or January lows. This could potentially be a trap for newer traders who are always seeking the rare "big home run move". Instead, the market seems to be tactically playing between levels, resulting in failed breakdowns to trap chasers.
Resistance Levels:
4127, 4135 (major), 4142, 4148, 4152 (major), 4166, 4173-75 (major), 4188-90 (megaphone resistance, major), 4197, 4205 (major), 4220 (major), 4232, 4240-42 (major - large broadening formation resistance), 4256, 4266, 4273-76 (major), 4282, 4290-92 (major), 4305 (major).
Support Levels:
4118 (major), 4111, 4100-4105 (major - broadening formation support), 4079-83 (major), 4070, 4057, 4040-44 (major - broadening formation support), 4025, 4020 (major), 3999, 3990 (major), 3967-72, 3956 (major).
Key Structures:
Bonds:
On the bond front, the yield on the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries showed a marginal increase today. This could be a significant factor to watch for in the coming days.
Trading Plan:
In the evening hours, I opened a short trade here at 4133 resistance. For any long positions, a sustained break above 4133-35 will be needed to trigger the upside once again. A false break will trigger back to downside support.
Final Thoughts:
In summary, while the market's current state might be frustrating for those seeking the "big move," it's crucial to remain patient and tactical. The market's gyrations test our resilience and adaptability as traders.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Today's session was marked by a continued consolidation within a narrow range for ES_F. The market has been in a tight range for the past week, with closing prices consistently falling within 1% of the 4130 zone. This is one of the tightest consolidations we've seen in years, and it's a consequence of the May 4th/5th rally and the options expiry week.
We saw the ES_F put in a notable 6 daily candles stacked tightly side-by-side in approximately a 60-point range, likely the tightest range since the March or January lows. This could potentially be a trap for newer traders who are always seeking the rare "big home run move". Instead, the market seems to be tactically playing between levels, resulting in failed breakdowns to trap chasers.
Resistance Levels:
4127, 4135 (major), 4142, 4148, 4152 (major), 4166, 4173-75 (major), 4188-90 (megaphone resistance, major), 4197, 4205 (major), 4220 (major), 4232, 4240-42 (major - large broadening formation resistance), 4256, 4266, 4273-76 (major), 4282, 4290-92 (major), 4305 (major).
Support Levels:
4118 (major), 4111, 4100-4105 (major - broadening formation support), 4079-83 (major), 4070, 4057, 4040-44 (major - broadening formation support), 4025, 4020 (major), 3999, 3990 (major), 3967-72, 3956 (major).
Key Structures:
- The small white broadening formation with support at 4105 and resistance at 4187-90.
- The larger blue broadening formation pattern with support at 4040 and resistance around 4235.
- The purple rising channel structure with support around 4136-31.
Bonds:
On the bond front, the yield on the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries showed a marginal increase today. This could be a significant factor to watch for in the coming days.
Trading Plan:
In the evening hours, I opened a short trade here at 4133 resistance. For any long positions, a sustained break above 4133-35 will be needed to trigger the upside once again. A false break will trigger back to downside support.
Final Thoughts:
In summary, while the market's current state might be frustrating for those seeking the "big move," it's crucial to remain patient and tactical. The market's gyrations test our resilience and adaptability as traders.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
