EEM & US Dollar. When with the global rotation pay off?

19 de ago. de 2019

Asia is getting very close to completing their EM development and will eventually move away from pegged regimes vs the USD as the US slowly fades in terms of GDP percentage vs the world. That is how it worked with the Euro and its only a matter of time with the Yuan. With China just starting to very slowly let their currency depreciate to boost growth and capital flows starting to move towards JPY and CHF as world markets evolve and seek safety in the transition, its unclear if the USD will be a safe haven this time around. The US market is currently the only market in the world with a higher value than previous periods. Once the world begins to recover, its hard to imagine global capital flow will remain in the US with its overvalued valuations and expected decrease in growth and productivity. Especially as all other global markets have extremely undervalued valuations and are further along in development and implementation of 21st century digital economic infrastructure. Global US denominated debt vs US monetary base may make the supply of USD thin and should hold up the value relatively well over time and should slow down its domestic inflation as the world de-dollarizes. However, its unclear if this dollar shortage is actually enough to tip the scales enough to create an extremely strong dollar that can lock up the current system. It seems obvious that market participants around the world are itching to shift their capital out of the US and EEM is a simple way to track the progress and developments with the dollar. If EEM breaks its long term structure, it will be obvious which direction the dollar appreciation/depreciation debate has gone. Hedge Funds clearly made the dollar weakness bet and rotated into EM Q1 and Q2 2019 but it did not pay off. As of 8/19/19 it is clear the global rotation is not quite ready with US long term yields collapsing to all time lows as Europeans seek safety and China not recovering as expected. Perhaps the key turn will be in Q4 2019 when China starts to show recovery and Europe handles Brexit along with its recessions. It seems evident that US markets can maintain their tall peaks regardless of domestic growth as long as capital flow does seek greener pastures.