Dollar Long term -18/5/2023-

• Here is a long term view on the Dollar dating back to 2001
• It is always best to look at the primary larger trend to understand where we are in the market
• The chart printed a symmetrical triangle since July 2001 with its bottom in March 2008
• The Dollar managed to breakout above the triangle in April 2022 shortly after the Ukraine-Russia war started and the Euro fell below parity
• The breakout however, could be a failure according to Bulkowski's rule which says that a breakout is considered a failure if the move didn't go beyond a 20% move. The breakout happened at 100 level so a 20% move would be one hitting the 120 level and what we got was 115
• According to other theories, the failure rate is 10% which we got beyond
• The latest Dollar decline could be seen as a re-test of the breakout level which usually happens more than 50% of the times and the market could be eyeing another massive rally for the Dollar to reach new highs if the pattern proves to be applicable
• This is a very long term view so if the breakout is confirmed, the next big rally could take months or even years
• Zooming in to the 15 month view, I drew the Fibonacci levels for the 2021-2022 rally and we can see that the bulls and bears are fighting around the 50% level now and any sustained rally from here could be seen as a completion of the correction for the major rally

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