DXY 106 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technical & Trade View
US Dollar Index Futures
Trade View
106 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 108.50
Technicals
Primary resistance is at 108.50
Primary pattern objective is 104.50
Acceptance below 106 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance above 108 opens a test of 109.50
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
Options Expirations For Friday’s New York Cut
EUR/USD: 1.0200-05 (839M), 1.0225 (687M), 1.0240-50 (597M)
1.0300-10 (1.19BLN), 1.0325 (678M), 1.0350 (206M)
1.0450 (2.7BLN), 1.0475 (268M), 1.0500 (566M)
USD/JPY: 138.90-00 (660M), 139.45 (567M), 140.00-05 (413M)
140.50 (1.4BLN), 142.00 (590M)
USD/CHF: 0.9425 (265M), 0.9535 (400M), 0.9875 (500M)
GBP/USD: 1.1700 (560M), 1.1750-55 (257M)
AUD/USD: 0.6650 (528M), 0.6660 (701M), 0.6750 (202M)
NZD/USD: 0.6120 (255M), 0.6150 (202M)
USD/CAD: 1.3160 (820M), 1.3200 (280M), 1.3250 (408M)
1.3300 (272M), 1.3325 (1.3BLN), 1.3350-65 (592M)
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Credit Agricole ‘The USD has been seen as the key beneficiary of the unfolding global economic slowdown: (1) the US economy is more resilient than its European and Asian counterparts; (2) the Fed has emerged as one of the more hawkish G10 central banks in a boost to the USD’s real rate appeal; while (3) risk-averse investors continue to seek refuge in high-yielding USD cash. We expect the USD to peak only in Q123 as it remains supported by its status as a high-yielding, safe-haven currency. The fact that the USD is overbought and overvalued also means that the pace of any additional gains could slow down in the next 3-6M, however. Further out, depending on the severity of the global downturn, the USD should cede some ground vs other safe havens like the JPY and CHF –under a global ‘hard landing’ –or pro-cyclical currencies like the AUD, CAD, NOK, NZD, GBP and EUR –under a ‘softer landing’
US Dollar Index Futures
Trade View
106 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 108.50
Technicals
Primary resistance is at 108.50
Primary pattern objective is 104.50
Acceptance below 106 next pattern confirmation
Acceptance above 108 opens a test of 109.50
20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
Options Expirations For Friday’s New York Cut
EUR/USD: 1.0200-05 (839M), 1.0225 (687M), 1.0240-50 (597M)
1.0300-10 (1.19BLN), 1.0325 (678M), 1.0350 (206M)
1.0450 (2.7BLN), 1.0475 (268M), 1.0500 (566M)
USD/JPY: 138.90-00 (660M), 139.45 (567M), 140.00-05 (413M)
140.50 (1.4BLN), 142.00 (590M)
USD/CHF: 0.9425 (265M), 0.9535 (400M), 0.9875 (500M)
GBP/USD: 1.1700 (560M), 1.1750-55 (257M)
AUD/USD: 0.6650 (528M), 0.6660 (701M), 0.6750 (202M)
NZD/USD: 0.6120 (255M), 0.6150 (202M)
USD/CAD: 1.3160 (820M), 1.3200 (280M), 1.3250 (408M)
1.3300 (272M), 1.3325 (1.3BLN), 1.3350-65 (592M)
Institutional Insights
According to analysts at Credit Agricole ‘The USD has been seen as the key beneficiary of the unfolding global economic slowdown: (1) the US economy is more resilient than its European and Asian counterparts; (2) the Fed has emerged as one of the more hawkish G10 central banks in a boost to the USD’s real rate appeal; while (3) risk-averse investors continue to seek refuge in high-yielding USD cash. We expect the USD to peak only in Q123 as it remains supported by its status as a high-yielding, safe-haven currency. The fact that the USD is overbought and overvalued also means that the pace of any additional gains could slow down in the next 3-6M, however. Further out, depending on the severity of the global downturn, the USD should cede some ground vs other safe havens like the JPY and CHF –under a global ‘hard landing’ –or pro-cyclical currencies like the AUD, CAD, NOK, NZD, GBP and EUR –under a ‘softer landing’
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