The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is overbought and turning down

The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is Turning Down From Overbought Territory. I went short one DJI future last week which did well. I opened an SDOW position in my 401k which got stopped out around breakeven after the overnight rally extending into Friday's daytime rally. I went short another future Friday at $23410. The US central bank has stopped quantitative easing and is supposed to be slowly unwinding their massive balance sheet in US Treasuries. In my 401k I will open a half SDOW position today and then add to it during a rally. I remember the 2007-2008 crash well. Please see my other posts on the Global Stock etfs VT and VEU.

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The COT data is very important for traders to understand. Go to barchartdotcom. In the upper left, click on futures. In the lower right, under Indices, click on commitment of traders. In the center left, click on DJI Mini-Sized (YM). The middle graph shows the positions of the Commercials (banks, etc), the Large Speculators, and the Small Speculators. The lower graph shows Dealer Intermediaries, Asset Managers, Leveraged Funds, and others. When you slide the mouse over the futures curve, a popup shows the COT data for that week. I watch the Commercials for long term trend/direction changes.