The DAX could retrace further from its ‘bull market’ threshold

The DAX entered a technical bull market on Tuesday by closing just over 20% higher from its September low. I have lost count the amount of times I have seen a market pull back from the 20% threshold (which is based on no logic that I can see, other than being a nice round number) – so that is just the first clue that the DAX could pull back further.

But we also saw two Doji candles leading into the high, prices were rising on lower volume, and a bearish divergence has formed on the stochastic oscillator. Therefore, the bias is for a retracement towards the 14,000 area whilst prices remains beneath 14,440. At which point we can re-evaluate its potential for a move up to the 14,709 high. A break above this week’s high assumes bullish continuation.