CRV - behind or ahead of the curve?

If that count towards a new low plays out, I'd be looking at 52 cents and below.

Alternative count, similar short-term conclusion:

Alternative conclusion, that's significantly more bullish in the short-term:

Comentário:

So far we have not created a new low, so the bullish interpretation shown in the last image of the previous post is still very possible (and very bullish) with two very deep wave 2s:

The invalidation would be taking out the lows.

As for the bearish view targeting 52 cents there are quite a few ways to count the structure at this point, a few examples:

Triangle B wave:

Diagonale C wave, though still too early to call here:

Unfinished impulse to the downside, that could be missing an extension in the 5 of the 5. While wave 4 would be a bit big here compared to wave 2, we did have a weekend inbetween there:

Comentário:

That most certainly went deep. Expanding diags do tend to correct deep though, so that still fits.

At this point it very much looks like the mentioned missing extended wave 5 was delivered and what an extension it was:

It wicked deep, but the daily close actually ended around 48 cents, which is the lower border of the 48 - 52 cent zone I had on the chart from the start.

As long as we don't take out the low at 38.6 cents, the analysis still holds.

Comentário:

With the local low taken out, this idea has been invalidated.

The last hold for a bullish view is now that a new global low hasn't been made (yet), so you can assume a complex correction like this:

or something less complex that's possibly not finished yet like this:

Either way invalidation is if the global low gets taken out. I'm gonna sit on the sidelines on this one for now.