80% probability trade on Oil with Future Options

Last 2 weeks, oil have been climbing up and now we are at the $50 handle which can be an interesting price. I believe it can still go higher, but its already pretty far from the moving average and will soon start to give us a correction down. Having already multiple positions in oil, I will sell a Call ratio spread (Buying 1 $51 call and Selling 2 $53.5 Calls to finance it) This way if it continue to go up slowly we can get to our max profit at $53.5 with our break even at $56.13 with no risk to the downside. This is a high probability trade with a 81% chance to make us money. The Green area is my poor attempt to show the risk graph and the red rectangle is where we would be losing money.

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido:

Closed all my trades on oil in this cycle for a profit.