16/12/24 Weekly outlook
Last weeks high: $106,649.88
Last weeks low: $94,177.33
Midpoint: $100,413.61
A new ATH for BTC last week as we saw 106K for the first time, truly amazing price action since the Trump election win.
MSTR, IBIT and other massive institutions are continuing to buy with more companies having rumoured to add BTC to their balance sheet, demand is strong and does not seem to be going away as we go into the end of the quarter/year.
This week we have many different data releases from the UK, US & ECB. Naturally volatility is expected around these events, it also makes traders a little tentative to enter into trades, I would say this is more accurate during bear markets/ choppy conditions. Right now we're in a strong Bullrun and therefor the momentum is less news data driven and more a race for institutional buying, It's a given at this point that we're in a period of rate cuts and so that is factored into price.
Altcoins have seen a recent pullback despite BTC pushing higher, this is as a result of the BTC.D chart tanking when alts took the liquidity from BTC profits and so dominance did see a correction. This latest BTC move up while alts are down is just a continuation of BTC.D continuing its surge as it always does in the Bullrun before the true altseason where alts outpace BTC after a blow-off top.
This week I'd like to see BTC come through data events unscathed with altcoins bouncing off the 4H 200EMAs and starting the next leg up going into year end.
Last weeks low: $94,177.33
Midpoint: $100,413.61
A new ATH for BTC last week as we saw 106K for the first time, truly amazing price action since the Trump election win.
MSTR, IBIT and other massive institutions are continuing to buy with more companies having rumoured to add BTC to their balance sheet, demand is strong and does not seem to be going away as we go into the end of the quarter/year.This week we have many different data releases from the UK, US & ECB. Naturally volatility is expected around these events, it also makes traders a little tentative to enter into trades, I would say this is more accurate during bear markets/ choppy conditions. Right now we're in a strong Bullrun and therefor the momentum is less news data driven and more a race for institutional buying, It's a given at this point that we're in a period of rate cuts and so that is factored into price.
Altcoins have seen a recent pullback despite BTC pushing higher, this is as a result of the BTC.D chart tanking when alts took the liquidity from BTC profits and so dominance did see a correction. This latest BTC move up while alts are down is just a continuation of BTC.D continuing its surge as it always does in the Bullrun before the true altseason where alts outpace BTC after a blow-off top.
This week I'd like to see BTC come through data events unscathed with altcoins bouncing off the 4H 200EMAs and starting the next leg up going into year end.
Nota
Some interesting PA so far this week with a potential repeat of monthly open.
A SFP of the weekly high looks to be setting up, if this does play out a move to the midpoint is likely IMO.
Nota
ECB CPI comes in a little cooler than forecast,
Actual: 2.2% Forecast: 2.3%
The EU is having major growth problems, with CPI coming in closer to 2.0% maybe we'll see a faster paced rate cut to stimulate growth.
Nota
Half way to the midpoint target since the SFP was confirmed. If we don't see any positive reaction off the 0.75 line then midpoint is definitely the next step where I would like to start looking at a short term position. Nota
And there is the retest of the Midpoint as predicted!
FOMC came in as forecast but JP saying that the FED can't own BTC has somehow spooked the market?? Seems odd as everyone knew this so as long as we hold midpoint, which we are currently doing well, I see no problem.
Alts have taken a big hit but good buying opportunities are showing themselves.
Nota
Since the SFP was confirmed earlier in the week, almost a full retrace of the last weeks progress sees BTC back at weekly lows. Hard to see where the buys will come from over the holidays, might have to wait until the new year to see a meaningful bounce. Nota
Bullish divergence forming on the 1H TF, however weekly low has been broken.
Still not a clear read on where this stops but relief in this zone wouldn't be too surprising.
Nota
Since reclaiming the weekly low BTC has been recovering very well, a close above the 4H 200 EMA and a retest as support is very positive. Nota
Still fighting the 4H 200 EMA, will be interesting going into week close. 
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