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You NEVER read Bitcoin Cycles in This Way

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BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
All Things Follow Patterns: Deciphering Bitcoin Through Nature's Lens

Before delving deep, one must grasp a foundational truth: markets, with crypto being no exception, exhibit recurring patterns 🔄, much like nature's intricate tapestry. Witness these rhythms in seasonal shifts 🍁, the sun's majestic journey from dawn 🌅 to dusk 🌄, and even the emotional ebb and flow we undergo daily 😊😔.

While countless individuals navigate the market's turbulent waters, a single trait echoes through every investor: raw emotion 😨😃. Fear and greed are the primary market drivers 📈📉. Stark numbers present a sobering reality: 95% of cryptocurrency enthusiasts witness their assets evaporate, leaving a meager 5% standing tall 🏆. However, mastering the art of reading market sentiments and recognizing the tides of collective joy and despair can be your ticket to the elite circle 🥇

Unraveling the Cyclical Model 🔄

Now that you're familiar with the cyclical model 📊, it's of paramount importance to dive deep into its intricate details and fathom how this insight can be wielded in the crypto realm 🪙. Let's explore the cycle's various stages.

Below is a depiction of the cyclical model. You might be tempted to dismiss it as just another chart from a mundane tome on markets, trading, and investments 📚. But, hold that thought!
Pause and imprint this graph onto your mind 🧠. The reason? You'll be in for a surprise when you discover the striking resemblance this illustration holds with concrete scenarios we'll unveil later 🕵️‍♂️.

Accumulation Phase 📦

Smart Money 💼: In this period, the asset’s value seems stagnant and "unexciting" 🟦. Regular investors and traders, the retail crowd 🙍‍♂️🙍, tend to step back, paving the way for the "smart money" 💡💰 (major banks, hedge funds, big players) to seize assets at a bargain.

First Growth Phase 📈

Institutional Investors 🏢: Here, the asset starts its ascent 🌱, yet subtly, not enough to make headlines 📰. The "smart money" persists in purchasing, preparing the terrain for what's next.

Euphoria Phase 🎉

Public 🌍: Arguably the most electrifying cycle segment 🚀. As prices soar, retail participants flock 🐦. The media spotlight intensifies 🎥, newcomers enter buying en masse, further fueling the surge. And the "smart money"? They strategically exit, handing over to the novices.

Capitulation Phase 📉

Capitulation 🏳️: Then, the downturn sets in. As prices dip, after "smart money" has exited, euphoria turns to dread 😱. Late buyers, who hopped in during the highs, are now in a frenzy, offloading assets. Thus, enters the "capitulation phase."

The pattern? A perennial one, consistent across every market landscape 🔄. Grasping this cyclical nature aids in making informed moves – to buy, to sell, or just to hold and watch ⏳.
Bringing Theory to Life: Tangible Scenarios 📚➡️🌍

Shifting our focus to concrete instances, consider the subsequent graph, which chronicles Bitcoin's entire financial trajectory 📈. This illustration lets us trace its periodic patterns. Conventionally, such a phase stretches over four years: a bullish 📈 period enduring 2.5 years and its bearish 📉 counterpart occupying the next 1.5 years.

Keep in mind, these periods are merely indicative and can oscillate due to a myriad of elements 🌪️. Still, this template sheds light on prospective oscillations in Bitcoin's valuation.



Next, we're diving deep into each Bitcoin cycle 🔄. But first, rewind to the original cyclical model graph. Now, stack up real-world instances against the cyclical model chart 📊. Spot how the real-world examples mirror the cyclical graph?

The First Bitcoin Cycle 🌱
BTC was crafted on PCs purely for enthusiasts' thrills, sans regulators 👨‍💻. Between July '09 and June '11, BTC experienced its premier bullish wave 📈, soaring to $18.5 from mere $0.05, a staggering +64,000% leap!


The Second Bitcoin Cycle 📈
BTC touched its first peak 🏔️, ushering its maiden bearish phase 📉. After a steep 93% decline, the bullish vibe quickly resurfaced, and from Nov '11 to Nov '13, BTC rocketed 🚀 from $2 to $1,240 - a whopping +60,000%!


The Third Bitcoin Cycle 🐻
Another bear market came with a deep 86% cut - BTC plummeted from $1,240 to $167. From Jan '15 to Dec '17, bullish vibes raised the stake to $19,800 📈, a rise of 11,800%.



The Fourth Bitcoin Cycle ⏳
BTC faced another 84% trimming 📉. From Dec '18 to Nov '21, the bullish phase propelled BTC to a majestic $69,000 from a modest $3,123, charting a 2,108% ascent.



The Fifth Bitcoin Cycle 🚀
We stand here, as BTC price dances between $18k- 25K 🩰, setting the stage for the Bitcoin cycle's nascent stages. A bullish tide is on the horizon 🌅, a moment crypto aficionados keenly anticipate.


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