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Bitcoin possible drop of 20% then up 33%! Roadmap with traject!
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Dear friends,
Here my personal idea about Bitcoin on the 4 hour chart.
Bitcoin has made a head shoulder formation with the neckline at exactly 34000 USD. Currently, this neckline is likely to be tested again by BTC.
The target of this HS is at 30800 USD. I expect another range of several days between 30800 and 31800 there. Then there could possibly be some bull/ bear traps by the big funds to shake traders out of the tree again and put them on the wrong path.
If the target of the HS formation is met then we will have exited the orange bear flag along the downside and the price target of 27150 will also immediately come into view.
Ultimately, I am thinking (ONLY in the event of a breakout trough the lower boundery of the bearflag) of a new low at 27150 USD.
If Bitcoin then breaks out of the falling green trend channel upwards, it will quickly head back towards the upper trend line of the bullish falling wedge.
Dear friends concretely this means that we will only see the target of 27150 if the orange trend line / bearflag is broken. If this bearflag is NOT broken we are entering a triangle pattern. Further analysis should then show how things could proceed depending on the new situation.
You will notice that I do not immediately start predicting long scenarios. It makes no sense at all. So step by step and at regular intervals check whether something has changed in the structure that could indicate a changed trajectory.
Would love your comments and of course with further explanation as to why you think this way. Just thinking that a certain price target will be reached is of course the same as gambling. There must be a logical analysis behind it. With good money management, the 1-2% rule maximum loss of your entire capital, you limit losses and you can continue trading for a very long time. One big loss without stoploss and you are no longer a trader but a long term holder of Bitcoin. Therefore, always use stops.
See also my previous Bitcoin analysis!
Dear friends, please share your thoughts and idea's below. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer Traders this is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Traders please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Here my personal idea about Bitcoin on the 4 hour chart.
Bitcoin has made a head shoulder formation with the neckline at exactly 34000 USD. Currently, this neckline is likely to be tested again by BTC.
The target of this HS is at 30800 USD. I expect another range of several days between 30800 and 31800 there. Then there could possibly be some bull/ bear traps by the big funds to shake traders out of the tree again and put them on the wrong path.
If the target of the HS formation is met then we will have exited the orange bear flag along the downside and the price target of 27150 will also immediately come into view.
Ultimately, I am thinking (ONLY in the event of a breakout trough the lower boundery of the bearflag) of a new low at 27150 USD.
If Bitcoin then breaks out of the falling green trend channel upwards, it will quickly head back towards the upper trend line of the bullish falling wedge.
Dear friends concretely this means that we will only see the target of 27150 if the orange trend line / bearflag is broken. If this bearflag is NOT broken we are entering a triangle pattern. Further analysis should then show how things could proceed depending on the new situation.
You will notice that I do not immediately start predicting long scenarios. It makes no sense at all. So step by step and at regular intervals check whether something has changed in the structure that could indicate a changed trajectory.
Would love your comments and of course with further explanation as to why you think this way. Just thinking that a certain price target will be reached is of course the same as gambling. There must be a logical analysis behind it. With good money management, the 1-2% rule maximum loss of your entire capital, you limit losses and you can continue trading for a very long time. One big loss without stoploss and you are no longer a trader but a long term holder of Bitcoin. Therefore, always use stops.
See also my previous Bitcoin analysis!
Dear friends, please share your thoughts and idea's below. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer Traders this is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Traders please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Nota
UpdateDear friends,
Now keep a good eye on the falling wedge. A break above = green trajectory. This means a failing head shoulder formation with an aggressive move up.
A breakout along the lower trendline is a continuation towards the target of the head shoulder formation.
Everything step by step and always be open to new moves. As you already know, I have no bias whatsoever. No bull, no bear but just follow the charts because this is nothing more or less than a detailled road map to profits.
Good luck and happy trading!
Nota
Dear Friends,Bitcoin has broken out of this small bullish wedge to the upside. Here's what we've been watching for. To play really safe it is best to wait for a higher high and when there is a pullback it is a good time to go LONG.
Or you take the risk, place a stoploss under the lows and go LONG already. That is pure personal tradingstyle.
In any case wherever you go LONG, the stop loss must be placed below the last swing low because if this is a bull trap we would still get the drop. Your stoploss protects you from losses. Bull and bear traps we have seen a lot of times lately!
Do not forget that we are still in the trading range with movement up and down. Only when we break above or below this range does the longer term target come into view.
Good luck and happy trading!
Nota
ImportantDear traders,
The break through the wedge has no follow through so far and also no volume. So this could be another bull trap which we have seen many times.
So to go LONG better wait until the neckline has been broken through with volume and we have set a higher high. Then place the order only on the pullback.
In this way you have much less risk of traps.
Good luck dear friends
Nota
UpdateFriends, we also see 2 bearish rising wedges in succession besides the bear flag (bright green trendlines). The bearish rising wedge has a target of 30000 USD.
A double bottom lies at 28860 and the target of the big falling wedge lower boundery at 27000. The head and shoulders formation with a a target of 32000 USD.
So there are currently 4 bearish patterns active.
A Bearflag, a head shoulder formation, a bearish rising wedge and a declining trend channel that has not yet been broken.
Then there is the hasitation to get back above the neckline. The neckline provides solid resistance because it is also a key resistance level.
So no doubt it's going to be exciting but we have the weekend ahead of us and that means lower volume and even more unpredictable moves because of manipulation in combination with low volume.
Many things to keep an eye on dear traders but you can also just wait for a higher high and then buy at a higher low. The higher low can be characterized by a bullish candlestick in combination with higher volume. Or other patterns like double bottom extreme indicator positions etc.
Good luck traders and have a nice weekend!
Nota
2 scenario'sDear friends!
Here is a new update for Bitcoin.
There are 2 possible scenarios. Bitcoin breaks the black bullish wedge trend line upwards and we see possibly a target of 41000 which is the top of the trading range.
The other scenario is that Bitcoin bounces off the top trend line of the wedge. and then hits the bottom of bearflag. We then set a lower high and a lower low.
Short ONLY when the bearflag is broken as I already wrote when I posted this idea.
I suspect dear friends that the second scenario will come into play. This is because we clearly see the volume falling over the last week and this rise of the price is therefore not supported by volume. Also we see some doji candles which are a sign of weakness here.
Only after a clear break upwards with volume and then a retest of the trendline will be a good moment to go LONG.
Good luck and happy trading!
Nota
Head and shoulders untill now still intact!My previous update is still valid but here is some additional information.
Here I looked again at the head and shoulders formation which I thought had become invalid but that is still not the case as the chart shows. Also the bearish wedge with target 30113 is still there. Thereby a strong declining average volume and a large bearflag (between the fluor green trendlines).
You can also see that price is narrowing inside a new Symetrical triangle.
A breakout above the upper boundery of the wedge / also triangle, will confirm the right direction.
Good luck with trading dear friends!
Nota
I notice that the daily volume on the daily candles is getting less each day and this already for 13 days in a row!There is clearly a major movement coming. Silence before the storm ...
The market has not made a choice yet and that is evident in the price but it won't last long my opinion before it will happen. My best guess is this night / tomorrow when the world traders weekend is finished.
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