About BTC Analysis and Averaging Down...

29 de dez. de 2024

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(USDT 1D chart)

I think USDT provides funds that support the coin market.

Therefore, it has a big impact on the coin market.

If this USDT gap continues to decline, I think the coin market is likely to turn into a downtrend.

I think the gap decline of USDT or USDC is a sign that funds are flowing out of the coin market.

(USDC 1D chart)

I think that the current continuous inflow of funds into USDC is preventing the coin market from turning into a downtrend.

However, I think that the impact of USDC on the coin market will be short-term because it has a lower impact than USDT.

USDC cannot form a USDC market on exchanges around the world, so it cannot help but have a lower impact than USDT.

Therefore, when USDT maintains a gap downtrend, if USDC also shows a gap downtrend, the coin market is expected to show a large decline.

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)

As a new candle is created, the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart will be created at the 94742.35 point.

Accordingly, the support around 94742.35 is an important issue.

If it falls without support,
1st: 87.8K-89K
2nd: 79.9K-80K
You should check the support around the 1st and 2nd above.

However, since the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is rising around 83.6K, it is important to check whether there is support when the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is touched.

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(1D chart)

After passing the volatility period around December 27, it eventually reached the lower part of the sideways section.

Therefore, even if it continues to fall further, the key is whether it can touch the 92K-93.5K area and rise above 94742.35.

The next volatility period is expected to be around January 10, 2025.

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When the average purchase price falls below the average purchase price, it is best to cut your loss at the cut-off point.

However, from a mid- to long-term investment perspective, there are cases where you cannot cut your loss unconditionally just because the price falls, and you may have missed the time to respond.

In this case, you should eventually purchase more to lower the average purchase price and sell when it rebounds.

This is called averaging down.

The basic principle of averaging down is that you must purchase more than the current purchase principal.

(Usually in the stock market, you purchase more than the number of shares you currently own.)

Since decimal trading is possible in the coin market, there is an advantage of being able to purchase the purchase principal amount rather than the number of coins (tokens) you own.

In that case, the average purchase price will fall more than you think.

Therefore, in the coin market, having cash is very important.

If you have spare funds (cash), you can cut losses between 50% and 100% of the purchase principal when the price falls below the cut-off point, or you can respond without cutting losses at all.

If you do not have spare funds (cash), you should cut losses near the cut-off point.

At this time, it is important to secure cash by selling more than 50% of the purchase principal.

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If you can manage your investment ratio as explained above, the next important thing is when to make additional purchases.

If you bought when the price fell by -10% as I mentioned in the previous "Example of how to trade without being able to analyze charts" idea, then when the price falls by -10% again, it is the time to make additional purchases.

Instead, you should purchase additional stocks that you bought according to your own standards when the price rebounds, lower the average purchase price, and then sell them when the price rebounds.

In other words, the additional funds purchased must be sold when the price rebounds.

Otherwise, when it falls below the average purchase price again, the funds for the next additional purchase will increase significantly, so you will end up giving up without doing anything.

The important thing here is to know how much the original purchase principal was before you start averaging down.

The reason is that when you purchase additionally and then rebound and sell the amount of the additional funds purchased, the number of coins (tokens) remaining may change.

If you purchase additionally and the price rebounds, but it does not rise above the average purchase price and shows signs of falling, it is considered a loss from the overall trading perspective.

However, since you sell the amount of the additional purchase when the price rebounds, it is likely to be a profit when looking at the average purchase price of the additional purchase.

In other words, the coins (tokens) for that profit will remain.

Therefore, if you do not know the original purchase principal, you may end up investing excessive funds the next time you purchase additional funds.

Excessive investment of funds can eventually be applied due to psychological anxiety and pressure, which can cause you to make inappropriate transactions.

I will publish how to select the timing of additional purchases when I have the next opportunity.

However, you should select it by looking at the movements of the StochRSI, BW, DOM auxiliary indicators added to this chart and the M-Signal indicators on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts.

At this time, if there are support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can trade based on whether there is support or not.

Since the MS-Signal indicator on this chart is the standard for trend reversal, you can use it.

However, it is recommended to proceed with additional purchases based on the 1D chart.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.

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- ​​Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.

(BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.

Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.

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(LOG chart)

Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.

Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.

Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.

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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.

That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.

The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.

Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.

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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.

It is up to you how to view and respond to it.

Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.

However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.

The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.

Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

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30 de dez. de 2024

Trade ativo

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator failed to enter the overbought zone after rising from the oversold zone and entered the oversold zone again around the 50 point.

This means that the downward strength is strong.

Accordingly, it seems that a movement forming a bottom zone will begin.

Since the downward strength is strong, it is highly likely that it will lead to an additional decline, but it is expected that a bottom zone will be formed while creating a double bottom.

If the HA-Low indicator is generated in this movement, I think it will be a signal that verifies the above.

Therefore, if an additional decline occurs, the maximum decline zone is expected to be around the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

Before that, we need to check whether there is support around 87.8K-89K.

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(1W chart)


Looking at the 1W chart,
- If it falls to the first section, it will fall by about -18%,

- If it falls to the second section, it will fall by about -26%.

Looking at the speed at which the StochRSI indicator is falling, it is expected to enter the oversold section when it touches the first section.