BTCUSD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS FROM MINING AND DIFFICULTY DATA
To sum up: It seems there is no reason for the price to go down (just analyzing mining costs)
Hello, after having analyzed BTC from a chart point of view in the linked idea and said that it is bullish (despite the recent scammy price action, as we are above the retracement area (green), within all ascending channels and above the symmetrical triangle), let's see the fundamental perspective.
Miners profits just at the last difficulty change (20/5) were at 4,000usd per Bitcoin, meaning that with btc at 9,500 their cost was 5,500. Wait, this number included a huge amount of fees paid to them due to fomo and network congestion. Without fees their mining cost was 7,700. With "normal" fees, 7.400.
SO, after halving:
Mining cost 5,500
Mining cost without tx fees: 7700
Mining cost with "standard fee": 7400.
It is true that with btc at 9,500 miners were well above their costs, it is also true that those huge tx fees could not last forever, and that 5,500 was more of a random data than longer term reality. That is why the price could fall a little bit to 8,800 but could not go lower than that as in normal conditions, the cost WAS 7,400.
After the decrease in the difficulty and with lower transactions fees (as the mempool is almost completely empty now) that offset each other, miners profit remained stable (5400) now. Now, their mining cost is much cheaper due to decreased excluding fees: 6100-6300.
This could bring to a potential low to 6100 on BTC price, but I don't think it will happen wth the next movement.
As I said in other ideas, if costs increase, miners just have two options between sellin some BTC to fund themselves for a while/switch off their plants (depends on them) or see the price of BTC to increase (does not depend on them). But this is not the case, mining cost decreased. So any drop won't be caused by mining factors.
Also, in 7 hours, difficulty is expected to decrease even more, leading more miners to the game, attracted by profits.
Other thing is that JPM wille be the bank for Gemini (that is a HUGE news since as of now only minor banks in particular legislations could be an exchange bank)
I continue to see huge amounts of BTC taken out from exchanges and put into wallets (seems an acculation, non a distribution phase).
Transaction number, you know I watch it a lot as a signal of the network activity, is again above 300k per day.
What you guys think?
Hello, after having analyzed BTC from a chart point of view in the linked idea and said that it is bullish (despite the recent scammy price action, as we are above the retracement area (green), within all ascending channels and above the symmetrical triangle), let's see the fundamental perspective.
Miners profits just at the last difficulty change (20/5) were at 4,000usd per Bitcoin, meaning that with btc at 9,500 their cost was 5,500. Wait, this number included a huge amount of fees paid to them due to fomo and network congestion. Without fees their mining cost was 7,700. With "normal" fees, 7.400.
SO, after halving:
Mining cost 5,500
Mining cost without tx fees: 7700
Mining cost with "standard fee": 7400.
It is true that with btc at 9,500 miners were well above their costs, it is also true that those huge tx fees could not last forever, and that 5,500 was more of a random data than longer term reality. That is why the price could fall a little bit to 8,800 but could not go lower than that as in normal conditions, the cost WAS 7,400.
After the decrease in the difficulty and with lower transactions fees (as the mempool is almost completely empty now) that offset each other, miners profit remained stable (5400) now. Now, their mining cost is much cheaper due to decreased excluding fees: 6100-6300.
This could bring to a potential low to 6100 on BTC price, but I don't think it will happen wth the next movement.
As I said in other ideas, if costs increase, miners just have two options between sellin some BTC to fund themselves for a while/switch off their plants (depends on them) or see the price of BTC to increase (does not depend on them). But this is not the case, mining cost decreased. So any drop won't be caused by mining factors.
Also, in 7 hours, difficulty is expected to decrease even more, leading more miners to the game, attracted by profits.
Other thing is that JPM wille be the bank for Gemini (that is a HUGE news since as of now only minor banks in particular legislations could be an exchange bank)
I continue to see huge amounts of BTC taken out from exchanges and put into wallets (seems an acculation, non a distribution phase).
Transaction number, you know I watch it a lot as a signal of the network activity, is again above 300k per day.
What you guys think?
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