Correction Dynamics | How Long Will It Last?

4 de nov.

Correct me if I am wrong, the question right now is about the correction, right?
How long will it last, how will it develop; what are the dynamics, what can we expect?

These are good questions and we have some data on the chart that can help us build some approximations.

Since March 2024, Bitcoin's ATH and the end of the last major bullish impulse, we had mainly three down-moves as part of a big distribution phase.

1) From 11-March through 29-April; 49 days, 7 bars.
2) From 3-June through 1-July; 28 days, 4 bars.
3) From 29-July through 2-September; 35 days, 5 bars.
3a) A variation would be from 29-July through 5-August; 7 days, 1 bar.

If we add all these three together: 49, 28 and 35 days we get 112, divided by 3 gives us 37 days. This would be the average duration for each correction this year.

Another way is to count from 11-March through 5-August; 147 days, 21 bars (weeks). We can divide this by the Fibonacci golden ratio and see what number we get. 91 days. Too long.

Divided by 2.618 we get 68 days and by 3.618 we get 40 days. Too long, too long, too long, too long.

Let's try finding a more suitable number using variation number two for the third down-move of the corrective phase. Let's add 49, 28 and 7. This will give us 84, divided by 3 and we get 12.

A 12 days correction, similar to early August, would put us at 10 November, around this date.

What do you think, are these methods any good or should we dig deeper?

It would be a flash crash but this is the only way that is possible, the drop tends to develop much faster than the rise.

Bitcoin went up for 16 months, between November 2022 and March 2024. A correction would unravel 2-2.5 faster than the rise, which would translate into 6.4 to 8 months.

We are already beyond 6.4 months. 8 months would put us at 14 November, give or take a few days, and 14 November is very close to the 10-12 date which just came up with our random calculations.

Just considering different scenarios, let's say that the correction will hit bottom by mid-November 2024. After that, slow but sure long-term growth.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.