BTC Rally. False Hope or Redemption?
Hey guys how are you all doing?
Last post i talked about waiting for Saturday for a clearer picture. And in that post I updated with a long position which I closed after 6700. I didn't play the short since I wasn't sure yet as there was nothing but air on 6700. It either could go down or go up. It went higher. While I'm happy, the recent bloodbath is still fresh so I'm cautious. The High of 69++ is worrying cos that was a clear rejection from 7000. But the price action as of time of writing has been steady, so I'm expecting accumulation again before a leg up. I will highlight the things I'm looking at to guide my bias, so read on.
Key Indicators:
-Stoch RSI in D1 still shows bullish momentum
-But H4 has reversed
- Bullish Divergence at D1 still showing
- RVGI still shows juice to the upside
- Volume at D1 is still bullish
Conclusion:
The accumulation phase I described in the previous post was short lived, but it made sense since we were in oversold territory for an extended period. The timing was unexpected but the violence of the move was not. Since we've had almost a billion dollars of liquidations, I believe that was enough to fuel this rally. Not to mention the newly printed money and bail out banks are gonna get, which are coincidentally also investors in crypto. Not a lot of viable stocks to reinvest in right now, not until markets stabilize, and that will only happen when the COVID crisis is controlled. Yet to happen.
The price rally was for me MM driven since we were on a spiral down lower than 4400 before there was a significant reversal around 44++. They may have brought the price to that low to encourage a sell off since we cant go high with lots of moon boy high leverage longs. This was a liquidity grab for the leg up. Similarly, the current price is showing signs of following similar fashion, hence I expect a new accumulation phase in the H4 and D1.
Bias:
Long till 7000, Next target 7700
SL: Below 5870 (just in case we wick) but thats my personal opinion
Invalidation: If we drop below 5600 this coming week we may be in for a deeper bottom below 5000.
A word of caution: IF we go down 5950 then we might lose the bullish rally. Let's keep an eye on latest COVID news in the US and Western Europe, they have yet to peak, we may witness a second panic.
The argument that BTC will become the new safe haven asset as the economy continues its collapse is an argument that I don't have the data to support. But personally the deeper turmoil in the markets, the louder the battle cry for crypto adoption. It may take months to years but looking at current Fiat System, QE was not the answer in 2008, and it is not the answer for this crisis nor will it ever be for any crisis. Fiat System modeled after the Quantity Theory of Money is not suited for our global economy and this crisis has exposed it. Only a matter of time.
That's it guys my take guys. I hope you enjoyed it, and if you do, please LIKE and SUBSCRIBE!
Let's observe solid risk management, Safe Trades All
'Fiat- Let it be done'
Last post i talked about waiting for Saturday for a clearer picture. And in that post I updated with a long position which I closed after 6700. I didn't play the short since I wasn't sure yet as there was nothing but air on 6700. It either could go down or go up. It went higher. While I'm happy, the recent bloodbath is still fresh so I'm cautious. The High of 69++ is worrying cos that was a clear rejection from 7000. But the price action as of time of writing has been steady, so I'm expecting accumulation again before a leg up. I will highlight the things I'm looking at to guide my bias, so read on.
Key Indicators:
-Stoch RSI in D1 still shows bullish momentum
-But H4 has reversed
- Bullish Divergence at D1 still showing
- RVGI still shows juice to the upside
- Volume at D1 is still bullish
Conclusion:
The accumulation phase I described in the previous post was short lived, but it made sense since we were in oversold territory for an extended period. The timing was unexpected but the violence of the move was not. Since we've had almost a billion dollars of liquidations, I believe that was enough to fuel this rally. Not to mention the newly printed money and bail out banks are gonna get, which are coincidentally also investors in crypto. Not a lot of viable stocks to reinvest in right now, not until markets stabilize, and that will only happen when the COVID crisis is controlled. Yet to happen.
The price rally was for me MM driven since we were on a spiral down lower than 4400 before there was a significant reversal around 44++. They may have brought the price to that low to encourage a sell off since we cant go high with lots of moon boy high leverage longs. This was a liquidity grab for the leg up. Similarly, the current price is showing signs of following similar fashion, hence I expect a new accumulation phase in the H4 and D1.
Bias:
Long till 7000, Next target 7700
SL: Below 5870 (just in case we wick) but thats my personal opinion
Invalidation: If we drop below 5600 this coming week we may be in for a deeper bottom below 5000.
A word of caution: IF we go down 5950 then we might lose the bullish rally. Let's keep an eye on latest COVID news in the US and Western Europe, they have yet to peak, we may witness a second panic.
The argument that BTC will become the new safe haven asset as the economy continues its collapse is an argument that I don't have the data to support. But personally the deeper turmoil in the markets, the louder the battle cry for crypto adoption. It may take months to years but looking at current Fiat System, QE was not the answer in 2008, and it is not the answer for this crisis nor will it ever be for any crisis. Fiat System modeled after the Quantity Theory of Money is not suited for our global economy and this crisis has exposed it. Only a matter of time.
That's it guys my take guys. I hope you enjoyed it, and if you do, please LIKE and SUBSCRIBE!
Let's observe solid risk management, Safe Trades All
'Fiat- Let it be done'
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