What could invalidate Falling Wedge reversal setup
Atualizado
This is an update on my previous ideas (see links below.)
As I explained in the related article, this downtrend may be forming a Triple Zigzag, having 3 zigzag waves joined by two corrective waves, each comprising 3 minor-sub waves (3-3-3-3-3, denoted as W-X-Y-X-Z).
So far, it seems nothing violates Elliott Wave Theory's definition of Triple Zigzag.
Let's check the latter half of the Triple Zigzag wave, Y-X-Z.
Wave X is itself often a complex correction, but we can see it has three component waves, a-b-c, broken down into a zigzag, a zigzag, and a diagonal triangle.
Wave b was, as we remember, a reversal beginning from the recent, right-inclined Inverse Head and Shoulders. The rebound looked as if it were an impulse.
If it were an impulse (with 5 wave components), it would invalidate the Triple Zigzag hypothesis.
However, it included a sudden spike, and its accompanied correction. The correction, a long red candle, should count as the 4th wave if the whole rising wave is an impulse. But it appeared in a very short time, which seems to be extremely irregular.
Rather, I suppose we should count this wave as a Double Zigzag comprising three waves, as in the image attached below.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3mEPYMft/
If this count validates, the weird pseudo-impulse counts as the second wave or wave b, in the third wave, "Z" of the Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z).
If so, we are in the FINAL swing of this downtrend, wave c of wave Z, which could be aiming for12500 or lower, according to my prediction.
Bull's hope would be a reversal from here, with this plunge being a falling wedge breakout reversal setup, which competes with my theory/hypothesis above.
Nota
Minor Correction.>Let's check the latter half of the Triple Zigzag wave, Y-X-Z.
>Wave X is itself often a complex correction, but we can see it has three >component waves, a-b-c, broken down into a zigzag , a zigzag , and a diagonal >triangle.
-- insert these two sentences here --
Wave "Z "comprises a-b-c.
Wave a of wave Z was a trianlge.
>Wave b was, as we remember, a reversal beginning from the recent, right->inclined Inverse Head and Shoulders . The rebound looked as if it were an >impulse.
Nota
My wave count for the B wave is discussed in the comment area.
Nota
To those who suddenly dismiss one's analysis without any plausible grounds: my advice is to check if your opinion has any objective validity before you post it. This will prevent people reading your comments from having strange preconceptions about you.
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