Bitcoin April 2018 Fractal, Great Road Map so Far
Atualizado
I have been posting this fractal the past week since the rally, and so far it has been playing out almost the same. The details are not exact, but it's no exact science of course. While in 2018, fractals were like copies, now they mostly follow the steps/stages of the bigger picture.
This fractal shows it has been following the same steps. The triangle before the last rally, the H&S that was formed from the high was perfect then and now as well. So many things are really the same here. The movement of the alts was different then though, they were MUCH more bullish, but the market had much more retail money in it then we have now. Even though many people say something different, because the numbers that are shown, or the news we see here on the side bar, giving impression that many more people are in crypto now than ever before. Well, i am not seeing it. Let's say from the 50 people i heard talk about crypto in the first 6 months of 2018, maybe 5 of them still do something with crypto, the rest don't even want to hear about it anymore. But that is in my home town, could be very different in other countries, i simply don't know.
One of the updates i did yesterday:
Well so far the fractal has been in play, not identical, but the steps seem to be the same this time. Assuming it's real, think a max of around 9250 (could be it has been reached already). So if it gets above like 9300ish, think maybe it's off the table.
So this would suggest another retest of 8600/8800. If it follows the same pattern, it should make a drop where it should trigger like a bearish signal, to of course lure in shorts again, because that is what is needed to get this market upwards.
Do not stare/follow this fractal blindly!
hhttps://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gWLnxpnq/
The red zone has been a resistance so far, so i am keeping the option open for a bear trap. However, it looks like a super obvious bear flag. So at the moment, just not sure, if it's just what it is, a bear flag, or is it being formed to trap the bears.
The volume profile of the flag is not bad but also not great. So i think the support zone around 8700ish, is a key level here. On the left we can also see a potential triangle here, but triangles can be nightmares in crypto. Breaking one side and going back in and continue that pattern. So, something i mentioned a few times past weeks, as long as we do not see a high volume drop, anything can become a bear trap. The first high sell volume we had since the 4K a month ago, was a few days ago from the 9400 to 8600. Something i talked more about in my previous analysis as well. That sell volume doesn't give guarantees, but to me it usually says, all the whales that bought at the lows, have excited there. In 2018, after that volume wave, we would see the whales betting on the other side, so starting to accumulate short positions.
So in short, still a good chance this fractal might play out, so seeing another move up, but for that i think 8700ish must hold. I see support around 8550ish. But as long as we don't see high volume selling and follow through from the bears, it can still get turned the other. For the bulls, think first small resistance is around 8900ish and the important one (also when looking at the fractal), should be the red line, which is moving around 9100. At the moment while i am writing this, seems that 8800ish is the support of this bear flag now.
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Previous analysis:
This fractal shows it has been following the same steps. The triangle before the last rally, the H&S that was formed from the high was perfect then and now as well. So many things are really the same here. The movement of the alts was different then though, they were MUCH more bullish, but the market had much more retail money in it then we have now. Even though many people say something different, because the numbers that are shown, or the news we see here on the side bar, giving impression that many more people are in crypto now than ever before. Well, i am not seeing it. Let's say from the 50 people i heard talk about crypto in the first 6 months of 2018, maybe 5 of them still do something with crypto, the rest don't even want to hear about it anymore. But that is in my home town, could be very different in other countries, i simply don't know.
One of the updates i did yesterday:
Well so far the fractal has been in play, not identical, but the steps seem to be the same this time. Assuming it's real, think a max of around 9250 (could be it has been reached already). So if it gets above like 9300ish, think maybe it's off the table.
So this would suggest another retest of 8600/8800. If it follows the same pattern, it should make a drop where it should trigger like a bearish signal, to of course lure in shorts again, because that is what is needed to get this market upwards.
Do not stare/follow this fractal blindly!
hhttps://ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gWLnxpnq/
The red zone has been a resistance so far, so i am keeping the option open for a bear trap. However, it looks like a super obvious bear flag. So at the moment, just not sure, if it's just what it is, a bear flag, or is it being formed to trap the bears.
The volume profile of the flag is not bad but also not great. So i think the support zone around 8700ish, is a key level here. On the left we can also see a potential triangle here, but triangles can be nightmares in crypto. Breaking one side and going back in and continue that pattern. So, something i mentioned a few times past weeks, as long as we do not see a high volume drop, anything can become a bear trap. The first high sell volume we had since the 4K a month ago, was a few days ago from the 9400 to 8600. Something i talked more about in my previous analysis as well. That sell volume doesn't give guarantees, but to me it usually says, all the whales that bought at the lows, have excited there. In 2018, after that volume wave, we would see the whales betting on the other side, so starting to accumulate short positions.
So in short, still a good chance this fractal might play out, so seeing another move up, but for that i think 8700ish must hold. I see support around 8550ish. But as long as we don't see high volume selling and follow through from the bears, it can still get turned the other. For the bulls, think first small resistance is around 8900ish and the important one (also when looking at the fractal), should be the red line, which is moving around 9100. At the moment while i am writing this, seems that 8800ish is the support of this bear flag now.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this
Previous analysis:
Nota
I forgot to add this line here, also a possible resistance, around 9000/9020 nowNota
Above, the highlighted part, of an update from yesterday, seems something went wrong with the chart.Nota
The fractal is not identical anymore, but doesnt mean its over though. It broke down and at the moment it seems to have some resistance from that channel on the left (looks to be real). I posted earlier about that wedge on the left, but it was a very weak break up. So far it's moving mostly sideways, where normally with a wedge we should see a strong/fast move up. So that tends to tell me, we might test the lows again or even go lower. However, higher time frame still suggest coming days we should see some upwards movement (also what the fractal says). Think that curved shape on the left might be something as well, around 8680ish now. If that holds, maybe we will see a stronger move up and break that resistance zone around 8800.
That black line on the right is a bit random, think it's better to focus on the resistance zone around 8900 and that red line might even be the key zone to whether we go up coming days or not.
As mentioned yesterday in the analysis, as long as we don't see a big volume dump, this should al be assumed to be a correction of the rally. There is easily even room up to 8400ish. So unless we would see a high volume dump to like below 8400, shape of an impulse wave, this should all be considered a correction. Think 210ish of ETH should be watched as well (i updated on that earlier today as well)
Nota
The 8680 held and we made another push up. Now the curved broke, no real reaction yet. That trend line is about to break as well. Despite those lines, so far market has been moving like the bulls want. Think a correction now would even be good for the Bulls, to follow one of those 2 blue lines. But think the 8750/20ish must hold to form a higher low. If we then (or now) touch that big red zone around 8920/40, think that would be good for the bulls, because we could then see like a H&S form (or a cup and handle like many prefer to say).
Nota
To be clear, the scenario above, is the bullish version, assuming the fractal is still in playNota
Reaching that resistance/neckline now, not rejection yet though, so can't really say at this point it will make a right shoulder. Ideally we see something like on the right, seeing a nice strong bull flag getting formed now, which will eventually be the right shoulder of this inverse H&S.
On the left we can see, as mentioned in the analysis above, how the triangle broke but of course become a bear trap and moving up again. Must say, so far the bulls seem to be in control here. Think as long as it moves above 8840, bulls are simply in control, above 8780ish, also still in favor. Below 8780ish, becomes more tricky, below 8700/650 think bears might be in favor again.
Nota
Hmmm, the bull flag i asked for, was a bit too obvious even i would almost say. Making it quite easy for the bulls. The breakout is decent, not touching the neckline but staying above it which is normally a sign of strength. At the moment also seems to have formed like a triangle, so it's like almost a sure thing it will go up and that the fractal is still in full play here. However, the alts, those are quite weak. Those show a very different picture. So not sure if this is maybe just a bitcoin show again (like we have seen before in the past that Bitcoin rallies and alts fall behind big time), or that it's a sign that Bitcoin is doing a bull trap here.
To keep it simple, would say the 8950ish may NOT break anymore AND that trend line can not break anymore. So as long as it moves above those 2, bulls are in favor. Now if alts would all of a sudden improve (so play catch up), that would of course be a bullish sign. For now, i would just be a bit hesitant when being long here
Nota
As you can see here as well, that trend line from the past week of the highs, also just broke. Now still doing a retest, so this can NOT break anymore. This would suggest, if we drop back below 9000ish (8950), it could mean a failed attempt and we drop back to the lows even. On the left we see the small triangle, also broke above it, but no follow through yet. So would also say, it can not drop back in it again
Nota
Wow, that didn't take long :). The Hmmmm from my previous update was not for nothing: "Hmmm, the bull flag i asked for, was a bit too obvious even i would almost say. Making it quite easy for the bulls". Again showing, that when things are too obvious, it's probably a trap. Remember the 9200 high before the drop to 7800 a month ago? The triangle that looked soooo perfect (where i warned for that Bart move).
Anyway, things look bad now. Bulls trapped the market here, now this usually means a move towards the other side is being prepared. I have changed the triangle now, as you can see on the right. So if we would drop towards the low again (8550/450), big chance we see even more bearish movement.
For the bulls, would say their first key level is around 9000. As long as it doesn't break, i would say bears are in favor now
I have noticed something else again today (something i have seen a few times past weeks. Not a real pattern yet, but think it's something real. I will talk about it when i think enough people want to hear it, only measurement i have are the likes, so yes, it's a teaser :)
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