$BTCUSD: Q1 2016 vibes

19 de jan.

I was reviewing older charts and historical patterns in #Bitcoin, and re-did my Timemode analysis of the Q4 2015 to Q1 2016 daily chart.

I think this pattern illustrates well what to expect from a sideways corrective period that is needed to reset sentiment after people fomo'd in at the top before the ETF decision.

The sentiment was similar then, as well as macro, coming from the 2014 top, everything bottomed in late 2015, same as late 2022 now...then people kept shorting on the way up, or refusing to pay up after getting burned buying since the 2013 top in #BTC (Lord Ashdrake rings a bell?), until shorts got eviscerated by a sharp rally that peaked at $502 during Q4 2015.

What ensued after was a series of bearish swings reversing short term bullish swings, 4 of them, before sentiment fully reset. I remember that even I gave up on expecting a continued advance after that, even though I had caught longs from $250 to the top and done ok in mitigating downside swings since the $502 top. (people who were in my QQ signals group can confirm this, feel free to reply in tweets if you're one of them! Xie xie!)

I had to be awaken by alerts ringing when price surged and broke into new highs after I sold to cash around $400 before the trend kicked into gear again.

This time, I took some precautions hedging, but keep exposure going, and continue to generate yield in various ways. The market is more mature and better resources and infrastructure for traders and investors exists now.

Cheers!

Ivan Labrie.

22 de jan.

Nota

Price still choppy and weak, similar to my estimate based on Q1 2016's correction.

It's a good idea to get paid to wait, you could try selling call options or perhaps utilizing more advanced option strategies that profit from sideways action, or maybe even using Uniswap's AMM to get paid to provide liquidity while chopping sideways/down.

Raise cash and stake/lend or, just wait this one out.

Sentiment got overheated 1 day before the ETF approval and now we pay the price, need to wait for sentiment to reset, which will happen with a big enough decline to shake out late longs who remain confident in loss, which means odds of continuation down are high (last signal I had from my reliable contras was on Friday, price has been weak since, and now we have a new daily down trend extending downside duration and depth).

Best of luck!