I've been researching Bitcoin's previous major structures, especially 2014 to find patterns for how BTC recovers from large motions like this.
Chart Key:
GREEN: Best Case Scenario
YELLOW: Most Likely Scenario
RED: Worst Case Scenario (Matching the 2014 bear market)
1,2,3: The 3 major waves before breaking the downward trendline
GREEN BOX: "Bull Trap" Happens after the first large Consolidation Wedge
PINK BOX: Comes after the green box and is the true "Bull Break"
RED BOX: A plateau period where buyers get assurance the bears are really gone.
* Colors match previous structure of similar pattern
5k GREEN:
Bitcoin could find this support and then create a consolidation wedge till it breaks out. Drawing this curve was difficult as there wasn't enough space at it's current trajectory.
3k YELLOW:
Easiest to draw curve at current trajectory. Would be in line with pattern on historical bear markets.
.8k RED:
Even though this would match the 2014 bear market, I just can't imagine the market falling this far with the current status of Crypto.
*Chart is BTCUSD, 1 Day, Bitstamp
Chart Key:
GREEN: Best Case Scenario
YELLOW: Most Likely Scenario
RED: Worst Case Scenario (Matching the 2014 bear market)
1,2,3: The 3 major waves before breaking the downward trendline
GREEN BOX: "Bull Trap" Happens after the first large Consolidation Wedge
PINK BOX: Comes after the green box and is the true "Bull Break"
RED BOX: A plateau period where buyers get assurance the bears are really gone.
* Colors match previous structure of similar pattern
5k GREEN:
Bitcoin could find this support and then create a consolidation wedge till it breaks out. Drawing this curve was difficult as there wasn't enough space at it's current trajectory.
3k YELLOW:
Easiest to draw curve at current trajectory. Would be in line with pattern on historical bear markets.
.8k RED:
Even though this would match the 2014 bear market, I just can't imagine the market falling this far with the current status of Crypto.
*Chart is BTCUSD, 1 Day, Bitstamp
Comentário:
nailed it
Hoping the $775 scenario doesn't come to fruition, but in this market cycle I'm feeling people are too bullish at these levels for this bear market to be over.