BTC - Recap of May and Bull's Cheat Sheet

For those wondering about Bitcoin and it's recent moves -

Lets recap May:

We were moving within a symmetrical pattern since early May when dumped to 25k. In the weeks that followed we churned indecisively between the lower 30S and upper 20S, producing the triangle.

Symmetrical patterns are challenging for analysts due to lack of a clear bias, and statistically I lean towards them reflecting a continuation of the trend they entered on, but this is not always the case and sometimes underlying data may indicate bullish or bearish sentiment changing.

Today:

So what changed that provided us some relief in recent days? We reported last week that the US Dollar Index dropped over 3% from record highs. This alleviated some of the pressure on markets and we saw the stock market rally a bit over the past week. Crypto appears to be a slow mover and didn't show signs of relief until Sunday.

This does not mean we are out of the woods yet. We are still in a macro downtrend and we need to close over 35k to invalidate this local downtrend; and from there we need to recover the July 2021 support around 38k, and lastly the 40k level needs recovered to invalidate the macro downtrend extending from November 2021.

Looking at on-chain it appears a lot of Bitcoin exchanging hands but enough buyers are showing up to absorb the selling of the past month with signs of institutional accumulation ramping up. This doesn't mean we are about to moon, but it is a clear sign of buyer interest at these levels.

What to watch?

-Recovery of 35k, 38k, or 40k are all significant milestones, and each will likely present a measure of resistance and are unlikely to give way on the first test. This means you may see price volatile/bounce around if it approaches any of those levels.

-Monitor the 29K to 30k level for support. If we drop again, bulls want to see a successful retest of the May resistance. Bears will want to see us lose that level and return to the May downtrend.