Bitcoin: Retrace 25K Then Long.

Bitcoin is NOT in an ideal location for potential swing trade longs in terms of risk (even with the current buy signal in progress). The 28 to 30K AREA is a historical resistance that is still relevant. In this article I will explain the scenario that I am anticipating that will prompt me to share a new swing trade long idea with members.

First I want to point out: after the FOMC meeting during the previous week, a bearish engulfing candle appeared off the 28K resistance. Instead of REACTING to it (like 99% of the experts on here) I shared a counter trend swing trade idea utilizing a sell stop order which has yet to be activated. This method minimizes ME from the equation and lets the MARKET determine if the trade becomes active or not. As a result, the trade is still inactive, and helped to avoid getting caught in this potential bullish break out. While the short side still has some potential, people who over react as a result of opinions or other irrational nonsense now have to worry, and watch countless Youtube videos to appease their confirmation bias. While this entry method is not perfect, it helps to reduce noise and many would be stop outs.

To be clear, I still do NOT short Bitcoin but I do provide ideas for those who are willing to take that risk.

The next long scenario: On my chart, I have laid out one of infinite scenarios (markets ARE mostly RANDOM). This is an illustration of what I want to see to prompt a new swing trade long. A retrace to the 25K support, followed by some form of price action confirmation. From there, targeting the 28 to 30K resistance is within reason. It is also possible that a break out toward the 33K resistance can follow. These are the reference points I will use to determine the reward/risk.

I do NOT pretend to know the future (fake gurus), which is why I do NOT hold ANY opinions and maintain and open mind. The scenario on this chart is just a possibility that the market will have to confirm. As I have pointed out many times before, Bitcoin does NOT trade in isolation and we should consider the macro economic environment to help better gauge general probabilities.

To consider the macro, look no further than the bond market. While there is a sharp rise in short term bond prices (banking drama), the weekly time frame still favors a bearish trend. IF the bonds cannot sustain this rally over the next few weeks, the bearish trend can reassert itself and right now bond prices are at vulnerable levels. If bonds sell off over the coming weeks, it would not be wise to expect much more bullishness from Bitcoin and the stock market. No opinions, LET the bonds provide clarity.

Either way, if you are unsure about these variables, its better to trade smaller and manage expectations on smaller time frames to keep risk within reason.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.