Heavily bearish on BTCUSD if we cannot break 8200-8300 65% Fib

29 de abr. de 2020

I have the play that we are at the top of this bounce @ the magical 65% in Fib Retracement.

(Not sure how to link other charts yet but I'll explain it) Still having really high correlation between DJI and BTCUSD which implies that big investors are using the same strategies with stocks and Bitcoin.

My opinion is that the US stock market will crash very soon and it will be because of these reasons:

• Crossing 60,000 deaths in the US which is the number that Trump was touting that will be their upper limit (Condolences to anyone who has been tremendously affected by the virus).
  
• DJI is coming to a key point where it is now meeting resistance
  
• Comparison to the great depression we are following a similar pattern in the stock market to what happened in the past with this dead cat bounce.
  
• COVID-19, in my opinion, is not going anywhere anytime soon
  
• Social distancing is going to have to be enforced...you can see the problems they are having in Japan and Singapore and lifting the rules too early. On the other extreme, you have New Zealand and how slow they are having to go to stay safe.
  

My hypothesis is that we are going to bounce off 8200-8220 level which is at a similar level percentage-wise where I think the DJI will bounce to the downside off their resistance.

I will set a stop loss at 8300 which is above where I assume the maximum to be as there could be a savage BULL vs BEAR battle on where the price is going to go.

If this does play out I will be setting up to ride this trade to create a double bottom in the zone I have shown on the graph between 5500 - 3800 (levels calculated from Fib Retracement).

ALTERNATIVELY:
If we push past 8300 I will look at going long to 9000 but have not set up a level to enter into yet.

Let's see how my plan plays out as anything could happen.

Maintain or gain.