Whale/Investor Behavior Analysis -Why the market hasn't reversed
Whales pumped the price up to 11600 now and broke the downward channel. People start saying that the bull market has returned.
Don't be too optimistic. Here's some evidence showing that the market hasn't reversed yet.
The real bull market was Nov. - Dec. last year when we had lots of new people swarming into the market with dumb money. And they actually USE bitcoin to transfer value. Check this chart, Bitcoin Transactions historical chart. bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-sma7.html
You can see the number of Bitcoin transactions increased significantly since Nov. 16th. And it peaked on Dec. 19th, the day Xmas Crash started. Then it tried to peak again on Jan. 9th but failed. After that, it fell all the way down to the historical low since Mar. 2016.
"What does it mean?"
It means we have NO noob coming into this market since January. The market is still running on the money from veterans and new people who came in during Nov. - Dec. The bull will lose its power soon if we have no new blood flowing in. I need to see at least some rise on this chart to be convinced that a new bull market has started.
Here I give you a big picture of what will happen in the following days. In my last post, I said there is a chance that Bitcoin will break the downward channel and some major resistance. Now it did. Whales want people to FOMO in and they will have to break some resistance to entice people back into the market. They can build the resistance and break it by themselves with huge buying volume to convince you that the bull is back (e.g. 250 Bitcoin sell wall is eaten in one second).
Whales also use TA and maybe they are reading the ideas published on Tradingview right now. Ideas written by top authors receive hundreds of thousands of views. They can easily know what the market is going to react to some price point from these posts. If I were a whale, I would break some resistance and stop right before the targets or profit zones labeled in most-viewed posts.
So here are two equal-likely possibilities:
1. Bitcoin breaks out from the downward channel and then stops before testing the next resistance 12190.
2. Bitcoin breaks out from the resistance 12190 and stops before touching 13000.
I expect the turning point will be no where near the next resistance so retail traders who want to sell will not be able to react in time - they would expect it to touch or at least go closer to the resistance before turning.
At last, to those unfriendly individuals who keep yelling that people whoever short the market at the moment are retarded:
Be mature, kids. You won't become a millionaire overnight. Whoever told you that you can become rich simply by holding coins for one year or so without doing a decent job is conducting a fraud. This is a Zero-sum Game. What they really want is your money. Experienced traders know it's time to hedge because taking less profit is much better than losing real money. Never FOMO. If this really is the start of a new bull market, we will all have plenty of chances to make big money. But if this is NOT, you are just feeding all your money to whales.
Don't be too optimistic. Here's some evidence showing that the market hasn't reversed yet.
The real bull market was Nov. - Dec. last year when we had lots of new people swarming into the market with dumb money. And they actually USE bitcoin to transfer value. Check this chart, Bitcoin Transactions historical chart. bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-sma7.html
You can see the number of Bitcoin transactions increased significantly since Nov. 16th. And it peaked on Dec. 19th, the day Xmas Crash started. Then it tried to peak again on Jan. 9th but failed. After that, it fell all the way down to the historical low since Mar. 2016.
"What does it mean?"
It means we have NO noob coming into this market since January. The market is still running on the money from veterans and new people who came in during Nov. - Dec. The bull will lose its power soon if we have no new blood flowing in. I need to see at least some rise on this chart to be convinced that a new bull market has started.
Here I give you a big picture of what will happen in the following days. In my last post, I said there is a chance that Bitcoin will break the downward channel and some major resistance. Now it did. Whales want people to FOMO in and they will have to break some resistance to entice people back into the market. They can build the resistance and break it by themselves with huge buying volume to convince you that the bull is back (e.g. 250 Bitcoin sell wall is eaten in one second).
Whales also use TA and maybe they are reading the ideas published on Tradingview right now. Ideas written by top authors receive hundreds of thousands of views. They can easily know what the market is going to react to some price point from these posts. If I were a whale, I would break some resistance and stop right before the targets or profit zones labeled in most-viewed posts.
So here are two equal-likely possibilities:
1. Bitcoin breaks out from the downward channel and then stops before testing the next resistance 12190.
2. Bitcoin breaks out from the resistance 12190 and stops before touching 13000.
I expect the turning point will be no where near the next resistance so retail traders who want to sell will not be able to react in time - they would expect it to touch or at least go closer to the resistance before turning.
At last, to those unfriendly individuals who keep yelling that people whoever short the market at the moment are retarded:
Be mature, kids. You won't become a millionaire overnight. Whoever told you that you can become rich simply by holding coins for one year or so without doing a decent job is conducting a fraud. This is a Zero-sum Game. What they really want is your money. Experienced traders know it's time to hedge because taking less profit is much better than losing real money. Never FOMO. If this really is the start of a new bull market, we will all have plenty of chances to make big money. But if this is NOT, you are just feeding all your money to whales.
We don't trade patterns. We draw them.
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