BTC extremely bullish on the daily, but: dancing on razor's edge
Atualizado
Let’s keep this one very simple will we. We are all wondering where Bitcoin will be going and we are getting mixed signals from our friend for the time being. I just wanted to lay out the playing zone a little and highlight some details to pay attention to.
If we look on the daily here, the MACD couldn’t be more bullish, just making a golden cross, potentially hinting to tremendous upside.
But (!), if we look at the weekly, we see a somewhat different picture painted there, the MACD has just formed a death cross, and yes we have already seen quite some downward price movement upon that crossing. (don't mind all the drawings on the chart, just look at the MACD :-) )
Is the pain over?
Crucial support levels:
—> If we look at the chart, we can see that we have hit a strong support line on 04/02 (“1”). The outlier in the price that day really hits that level (not the blue Fibonacci, but really that trendline. ($6300-ish, bluntly speaking).
—> The line just beneath it ("2") provides an even longer term support, and if price breaks through the line through 1, we might expect to touch upon the 78,6 in blue first, after that, we’ll have support on the lower white support line in “2" (
4K-ish).
Crucial resistance levels:
—> The downward trend channel with resistance line “3” is where Bitcoin should try to break through to end the current downward movement.
—> We also see the 61,8 dark green Fibonnacci line acting as a resistance.
—> If BTC breaks through, we can expect upward movement to 50% Fibonacci (target +-11K) as new resistance.
—> Note that line 4 will also act as resistance in a later stage.
Conclusion:
- If we look at the 4-hourly, we see some downward movement to happen first (MACD), but this already happened to some extent.
- We also see something resembling an inverse head and shoulders (!), if the neckline there is broken, we can expect some nice upward bounce! (almost horizontal white line between 1 and 3)
- If we look at the daily, we have a golden cross in the daily MACD, which is very bullish, also the CCI is nicely curving upward.
- We need to break resistance line 3 here, as well as the Fibonacci 61,8 to confirm bullishness!
- The weekly still shows downward pressure, we have to keep an eye on the evolution there!
So: inverse H&S on the 4-hourly, golden cross on the daily as well as some crucial resistance levels to tackle, and the sword of Damocles on the weekly! That's what you have to keep in mind when doing all else in your analysis.
Consider it a quick bedtime story, cause in my time zone, it's bed time! ;-)
PS: this post should by no means by considered formal investment or speculation advice
PS 2: happy trading/speculating/investing!
If we look on the daily here, the MACD couldn’t be more bullish, just making a golden cross, potentially hinting to tremendous upside.
But (!), if we look at the weekly, we see a somewhat different picture painted there, the MACD has just formed a death cross, and yes we have already seen quite some downward price movement upon that crossing. (don't mind all the drawings on the chart, just look at the MACD :-) )
Is the pain over?
Crucial support levels:
—> If we look at the chart, we can see that we have hit a strong support line on 04/02 (“1”). The outlier in the price that day really hits that level (not the blue Fibonacci, but really that trendline. ($6300-ish, bluntly speaking).
—> The line just beneath it ("2") provides an even longer term support, and if price breaks through the line through 1, we might expect to touch upon the 78,6 in blue first, after that, we’ll have support on the lower white support line in “2" (
4K-ish).Crucial resistance levels:
—> The downward trend channel with resistance line “3” is where Bitcoin should try to break through to end the current downward movement.
—> We also see the 61,8 dark green Fibonnacci line acting as a resistance.
—> If BTC breaks through, we can expect upward movement to 50% Fibonacci (target +-11K) as new resistance.
—> Note that line 4 will also act as resistance in a later stage.
Conclusion:
- If we look at the 4-hourly, we see some downward movement to happen first (MACD), but this already happened to some extent.
- We also see something resembling an inverse head and shoulders (!), if the neckline there is broken, we can expect some nice upward bounce! (almost horizontal white line between 1 and 3)
- If we look at the daily, we have a golden cross in the daily MACD, which is very bullish, also the CCI is nicely curving upward.
- We need to break resistance line 3 here, as well as the Fibonacci 61,8 to confirm bullishness!
- The weekly still shows downward pressure, we have to keep an eye on the evolution there!
So: inverse H&S on the 4-hourly, golden cross on the daily as well as some crucial resistance levels to tackle, and the sword of Damocles on the weekly! That's what you have to keep in mind when doing all else in your analysis.
Consider it a quick bedtime story, cause in my time zone, it's bed time! ;-)
PS: this post should by no means by considered formal investment or speculation advice
PS 2: happy trading/speculating/investing!
Nota
Broke my very rough neckline, now struggling with the Fibonacci resistance (darker green horizontal line)Nota
Moreover, if we look at the Heikin Ashi, we see that there is currently indecisiveness (two last candles Doji/Spinning tops), we need a strong green candle that breaks the resistance line for trend reversal confirmation; we-re not there yet. If this doesn't pan out, we can see further downward movement. Nota
4-hourly looking promising for the momentNota
Remember, the green Fibonacci is at 8836ishNota
On the 4-hourly, we keep on going with the green Heikin Ashi's, which is good, but as you can see, we are still not breaching the green fibonacci horizontal. Patience and caution!Nota
While I was sleeping, the 4-hourly formed a spinning top in the Heikin Ashi (note that Heikin Ashis are not normal candle sticks!), and a spinning top in an up/downward trend is always an attention point. As you can see here, it indeed preceded the trend reversal and two red candles followed. So, in the 4-hourly, we are in a downward channel. Note that we are nearing the white neckline as support, also the 50EMA is going to be tested as a support (not shown on this chart). While the trend is negative on the 4-hourly, it would be nice to have the 50EMA work as a support for once! And this would also be a positive sign. We now also have to start "hoping" for a spinning top or doji bar (similar as the one explained in this update), but for a bullish reversal!
Nota
On the daily, we see some indecisiveness, but also still a nice green upward candle.We need this to continue and have a candle breaking out above the horizontal green Fibonacci. Note that either we get a new green one, or a doji/spinning top. The latter would make us more concerned about further downward pressure.
Nota
How exciting can it be - looking for support on the necklineNota
We had a new Heikin Ashi doji candle almost logically followed by a green candle, we are going back up a little...Nota
As expected, more green Heikin Ashi candles on the 4-hourly, if a doji candle appears, be alarmed. But for now it's looking good, we are going to test that Fibonacci resistance again - Note that we do have something like a double top that could become a triple top if price can't break through.Nota
Same story on the daily. We also have a golden cross there in the MACD, which looks promising. Know however that we are in tricky ground - as you can also see in other authors' posts. We need a break-through.Nota
Nice! Breaking through the Fibonacci as we expected based on the previous Heikin Ashi candles (see above), and the momentum is intact. Pay close attention to the next Heikin Ashis, we want them to be green and with an upper straw/"shadow" only! Volume seems ok, preferably should be a bit higher. It is also waiting for the daily to close above it.
Nota
We have a close above the fibonacci and are breaking through the white resistance line! Volume is up considerably to confirm it! Partly fundamentally driven by the European Central Bank dismissing fears of an imminent ban. (as you can read in our retweet of AllthingsCrypto: twitter.com/AT_Crypto/status/963790938362580993 )Nota
BTC on the daily - new beautiful green candle stick - no need to jump ship as long as you don't see a doji/spinning top (cf. above) showing up. Same story on the 4 hourly:
The bulls are back - at least for a little while ;)
I might conclude this BTC analysis here - stay tuned for a new one! :-) (we don't want to make this thread 200 pages long I presume ;-) )
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