Good morning, traders. Price has not initiated the short term pullback I was anticipating possibly happening around $9700 which is a testament to current demand and lack of retail supply. Last night, I closed my long and went short but with a very tight stop just in case price continued up, which it did. I was stopped out at a very small loss and have been long again since then. If we readjust my triangle from the past few days just a bit (pull it in tighter) as shown, then we are on the first set of subwaves after the breakout. This gives price a target of around $10500 which is the EQ of the ascending channel, but the flagpole leading to the pennant gives us a target of ~$1184. However, these would also need to be very shallow targets on some strong movement if price is to reach the top of the channel as expected. Reaching the channel resistance should have price in the low-to-mid $14000s, depending on how soon and fast price moves up. As I have mentioned numerous times before, this would be the 2018 descending wedge target as well as my expected wave 3 target.
All this being as it is, we can expect a lot of volatility as price takes out $10,000. That means that there will likely be large sudden drops and rises along the way until price hits its high. What I mean is that if price reaches that $14000 level, then I would expect a sudden strong drop back toward $10000 followed by a strong move back up beyond $14000. Unfortunately, with all the speculation required at this current price level this is also the place where analysts, including myself, will get targets wrong and amateur traders will deride them for it. Don't be that person. The fact is, above $10,000 retail FOMO will start building and once above $11780 it will really take over. There's just no way to accurately project targets with any real certainty based on that. However, if price heads in that direction, then I believe I've given a pretty decent guide, over the past few months, to likely price movement beyond $10000. Risk management should always be at the top of your trading plan but even much more so right now. You absolutely need to protect your capital during volatility. If you get stopped out, don't just FOMO and haphazardly jump back in afraid you're going to miss out and/or revenge trade. There will be pullbacks along the way, as mentioned above, so watch for those on the larger TFs if you intend to go long again. And, remember, nothing says that price MUST break $10,000 or that, once it does, it MUST continue up to $14000 and $20000+. This is just what I believe to be the most likely path price will take, if it does break $10000, for the reasons I've stated on numerous occassions over the past ~1.5 years. As I am just about to post this, I see a $200 price drop from ~$9900-~$9700 in a matter of minutes. If you are going to trade right now, this is the kind of volatility (and much greater) that you should be expecting, so trade accordingly. Potential bear divs are printing along many TFs as well, so if price doesn't get moving sooner rather than later, we could see the effect of that on price. Pay attention to what's going on as I wouldn't be surprised to see price make a trip to the bottom of the local TR (trading range) and possibly even print a Spring before heading up once more. In that case, I'd look for price to bounce from demand in the mid-$9500s.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
All this being as it is, we can expect a lot of volatility as price takes out $10,000. That means that there will likely be large sudden drops and rises along the way until price hits its high. What I mean is that if price reaches that $14000 level, then I would expect a sudden strong drop back toward $10000 followed by a strong move back up beyond $14000. Unfortunately, with all the speculation required at this current price level this is also the place where analysts, including myself, will get targets wrong and amateur traders will deride them for it. Don't be that person. The fact is, above $10,000 retail FOMO will start building and once above $11780 it will really take over. There's just no way to accurately project targets with any real certainty based on that. However, if price heads in that direction, then I believe I've given a pretty decent guide, over the past few months, to likely price movement beyond $10000. Risk management should always be at the top of your trading plan but even much more so right now. You absolutely need to protect your capital during volatility. If you get stopped out, don't just FOMO and haphazardly jump back in afraid you're going to miss out and/or revenge trade. There will be pullbacks along the way, as mentioned above, so watch for those on the larger TFs if you intend to go long again. And, remember, nothing says that price MUST break $10,000 or that, once it does, it MUST continue up to $14000 and $20000+. This is just what I believe to be the most likely path price will take, if it does break $10000, for the reasons I've stated on numerous occassions over the past ~1.5 years. As I am just about to post this, I see a $200 price drop from ~$9900-~$9700 in a matter of minutes. If you are going to trade right now, this is the kind of volatility (and much greater) that you should be expecting, so trade accordingly. Potential bear divs are printing along many TFs as well, so if price doesn't get moving sooner rather than later, we could see the effect of that on price. Pay attention to what's going on as I wouldn't be surprised to see price make a trip to the bottom of the local TR (trading range) and possibly even print a Spring before heading up once more. In that case, I'd look for price to bounce from demand in the mid-$9500s.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
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That should read ~$11084 in the first paragraph. I've attempted to edit it but it doesn't appear to be taking yet, so just in case here you go.
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