Bitcoin and Tether fight, almost over?
Atualizado
The crypto market has been sleeping for quite some time now and it looked like Tether was finally breaking it's range and was on the way back up to healthy levels, but within 5 minutes of that last update i gave the price dropped back in to the range again. But the move up was with MUCH more volume than the volume that dropped the Tether price.
The triangle breakout of Bitcoin was already long overdue making the pattern (probably) invalid. I still think that TA is useless at the moment because of the Tether uncertainty that is in the market lately. Usually when we see false breakout, we see counter moves. But as we can see in the chart we had false breakouts on both sides. Both of them were mostly because of Tether.
During that pump from 6200 to 6800 (and from 6300 to 7800 on Tether exchanges) allot of traders were buying Bitcoin because it was safer to have Bitcoins instead of Tether. These circumstances are exceptional which makes standard TA quite useless at the moment. I know that most people think TA is just about looking at pictures and using indicators, but that is only a part of it. In essence TA is about supply and demand (buyers and sellers). The price movement of an asset gets created because of "normal circumstances", speculation (traders) and long term investments. We (traders and investors) trade based on information that is known to us. We all know Tether has been variable in crypto but the past 6 months or so it has been very stable. So IMO Tether was a constancy the past 6 months and all the pattern (like the triangle) were formed knowing Tether was a constant factor (where nobody was thinking of). As i mentioned in one of my previous analysis, many support/resistance levels are not valid anymore expect for certain psychological levels like 6000 and 7000. Also important highs and lows, but not trend line levels because those were shaped when Tether was a constancy and NOT a variable like it has been the past month.
Long story short, were are still inside the range of 6350/6500. Until we break this range there is nothing to add. So i would be very careful with long/short positions until we break this range. If the range breaks, be aware of false break outs. You want to see the break out stay above/below the range for at least a few hours. Best is a daily close above/below it.
In the mean time i would say, broaden your horizon to other markets like the stock market. Volatility there has reached crypto levels and i have been giving allot of spot on analysis there. Giving moves that are worth like 1000/2000 point moves of Bitcoin. Even when your not trading it, you will make yourself a more seasoned trader. My early followers know my roots are from the traditional markets, because of my objective view on crypto i was able to catch most of the highs and lows on Bitcoin. Also because i have zero FOMO when it comes to crypto. FOMO has been the nr 1 reason why most traders just kept on loosing this year. FOMO is where professional traders feed on.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
The triangle breakout of Bitcoin was already long overdue making the pattern (probably) invalid. I still think that TA is useless at the moment because of the Tether uncertainty that is in the market lately. Usually when we see false breakout, we see counter moves. But as we can see in the chart we had false breakouts on both sides. Both of them were mostly because of Tether.
During that pump from 6200 to 6800 (and from 6300 to 7800 on Tether exchanges) allot of traders were buying Bitcoin because it was safer to have Bitcoins instead of Tether. These circumstances are exceptional which makes standard TA quite useless at the moment. I know that most people think TA is just about looking at pictures and using indicators, but that is only a part of it. In essence TA is about supply and demand (buyers and sellers). The price movement of an asset gets created because of "normal circumstances", speculation (traders) and long term investments. We (traders and investors) trade based on information that is known to us. We all know Tether has been variable in crypto but the past 6 months or so it has been very stable. So IMO Tether was a constancy the past 6 months and all the pattern (like the triangle) were formed knowing Tether was a constant factor (where nobody was thinking of). As i mentioned in one of my previous analysis, many support/resistance levels are not valid anymore expect for certain psychological levels like 6000 and 7000. Also important highs and lows, but not trend line levels because those were shaped when Tether was a constancy and NOT a variable like it has been the past month.
Long story short, were are still inside the range of 6350/6500. Until we break this range there is nothing to add. So i would be very careful with long/short positions until we break this range. If the range breaks, be aware of false break outs. You want to see the break out stay above/below the range for at least a few hours. Best is a daily close above/below it.
In the mean time i would say, broaden your horizon to other markets like the stock market. Volatility there has reached crypto levels and i have been giving allot of spot on analysis there. Giving moves that are worth like 1000/2000 point moves of Bitcoin. Even when your not trading it, you will make yourself a more seasoned trader. My early followers know my roots are from the traditional markets, because of my objective view on crypto i was able to catch most of the highs and lows on Bitcoin. Also because i have zero FOMO when it comes to crypto. FOMO has been the nr 1 reason why most traders just kept on loosing this year. FOMO is where professional traders feed on.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Nota
Here we can see the high volume of Tether during that move up and the very low volume pushing the price down again.Nota
This is very unfortunate, Tether made a solid break out of that range earlier but got pushed back in again. So it looked like we were getting close to the final chapter of this Tether story, but seems this sideways movement will continue. Bitcoin still moving inside the range so still nothing to add on this part. We really need a break of that range.
Nota
Tether is staying close to the 0.98 which is a good sign, trying to leave the 0.97x level behind it. Looking at Bitcoin, it seems like the range might have turned into a triangle, so maybe we could see some real movement soon, don't expect anything in during the weekend though. Nota
While Bitcoin is moving down slowly, Tether is making a good move up with high volume! This is a good sign for the market. Doesn't mean crypto market will move up, but it could take away this very dangerous factor that has the market in it's grip for weeks now.Nota
Still looking good with Tether, no quick dump this time. Think it will be a matter of time until it gets back to 1.00ish again. Maybe it could even cause some kind of relief rally for Bitcoin. I can't make any predictions on what the price will do after Tether gets back to 1.00x, it's a unique situation. So we will just need to see and wait first for what happens until we have some guidelines what we can use for future predictions.Nota
It's almost staring to look like the market is not happy with tether getting back to 1.00x level. Alts have been weakening the past hours. Instead of expecting some confidence coming back, almost looks like the opposite is going on. All very small moves so not that meaningful yet, but would have expected a bit more optimistic reaction to the upwards move of Tether. 
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