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Bitcoin - Show Me The BEEF! "To the Moon Baby!"
Atualizado
As more and more big time bulls come out of the woodwork, Bitcoin continues to exhibit weakness via order flow. From Mark Cuban who failed with Unikrn token, to Michael Saylor who's company is down 50%, and now Mr. Wonderful, are they bulls, or leading the fat cows to slaughter?
Well we know Michael Saylor is surely piling into Bitcoin, but he is clearly not playing with his own capital, it is the capital of the sheep flocking to Bitcoin because quite frankly, all the big names are jumping in!
But price action is not indicative of all this capital flowing in, quite the contrary, it is more indicative of capital flowing out, at least for now.
From a technical perspective the outside candle on the weekly, in an area of resistance should throw up a flag, but for many their 1 hour chart is screaming wrong, errrr I mean long! Now we are getting consolidation at the lower end of the candle with a bearish pinbar which may result in lower prices and a buying opportunity. At least for those of us who stuck to our plan, ignored the hype, and want to buy a real dip, not be a dip.
As my granny used to say Show Me the BEEF!!! Ok that was a great 80's commercial but her point is well made, so lets take a look at some charts quickly and see if there is any evidence for a leg lower in the near term.
Proportionality:
We determine a cycle based on proportionality of structures. Is this a fractal cycle, a broader cycle or a super cycle. The corrections circled in orange are within proportionality of one another, however the current correction is not. It is more proportional to the broader correction back in last November and January that lasted a month. Is it proportional to the 2018 super cycle? well time will tell, still way to early to say that, and IMO most likely not.
Lets also take a look at the initial swings higher out of the correction. Back in November the initial minor cycle consolidation happen at a new high, the one in January not so much, so this is a sign that buying strength is fading in the last bullish run.
Had it not been for Saylor's epic 1 billion dollar purchase at an average cost of 52k, probably would never have pushed 57k, but who cares. Had he been patient, he could be buying now, maybe he is, but still we are showing signs of a market topping, not gaining momentum.
Back to proportionality. This is likely going to be a broader multi week, couple month corrective cycle. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe we rally to 100k by June, but show me the beef! No I don't want to hear "so and so is bullish", I want to see the BEEF, and not on your one hour potted possum chart.
But wait, I am serving a multi course BEEF article here so on to evidence of strength!
Strength of Correction:
The Initial correction back in November was quickly bought up with strength giving us an extended "B" leg where the second leg of the correction actually went higher than the prior high. The "C" leg was rather flat, which is a sign that buyers are still actively accumulating at these levels.
The correction back in January off 40k was also met with "buy the dippers" and nearly retested the prior high. The "C" leg dipped slightly lower than leg "A" but buyers liked the 30k area and the rally resumed. However this correction was showing a little more exhaustion than the prior which was rather strong and one we took a long trade off of.
The current correction looks much much weaker than the prior two of proportional relevance, hence me starting with a proportional structures chart. The initial rally from "buy the dippers" failed to take out the 50% retrace, let alone get near a retest of the former high. That is not a sign that buyers are still jumping in hand over fist, it is a sign that buyers are buying fake meat, yes that plant based stuff that tastes like crap, and sellers are looming around 50k.
So where there is a weak "B" leg, I am expecting a much weaker "C" leg. Look at the 1st dip again, Strong "B" leg, Strong "C" leg. Second structure, pretty strong "B" leg, "C" leg held up, but this "B" leg is weak, and this opens the door for a weak or very weak "C" leg.
Once again you have a counter argument? "Show me the BEEF".
False Starts:
Corrections are difficult to trade because there are often many "false starts". Just look at all the false starts back in February before one stuck! So a weaker "B" leg possibly, definitely a weaker initial bounce, and several false starts once again.
As mentioned to our followers, 52k is an important level to clear here we do not want to see it rejected. OUCH!!!! Rejection like that hot chic from high school that you finally got the courage to ask out, and she said no because she likes beef eating linebackers, not vegan eating cupcakes. Bitcoin is also doing the same, those finally get the courage to jump in and BOOM Rejection! Ouch!!!!
So once again we are looking to retest the 44k area, but quite frankly if we take out 46500 I believe selling pressure ticks up, and we push right through 44k in a solid move down.
As for my plan and strategy it has not changed. Gets into the 30k region I am a buyer, pushes into the upper 50's mid 60's I am a seller it is quite simple to say the least. What is not simple for most is having the patience to wait. You have a better plan? "SHOW ME THE BEEF!"
Most simply want to be in the action, jump on board as Guru after Guru come out of the closet yelling "Bitcoin to the moon baby", like a NC vs Duke basketball game in the 90's with Dick Vitale at the Mic.
So with Mr. Wonderful, Mr. Mavs and Mr. "I'll buy Bitcoin at any price with your money" and the CEO of Kraken going to "infinite and beyond" still calling for ridiculous levels and the market is not moving higher, "SHOW ME THE BEEF" as to why we are not at 65k by now?
Don't look at the evidence, Don't try and understand why Bitcoin is not rallying "to infinity and beyond", as big name Bulls start coming out of the pasture like cattle being led to slaughter.
Wait lets not forget the push into crapperrrrrrrr alt coins like Doge, which you soon will be able to buy a Tesla with and your favorite Mav's memorabilia. Talk about hoping on Elon's coat tail.
Well if your business viewer ship is down 75% and you are hoping Doge Coin sparks enthusiasm, and idiots are going to buy pictures of Mavs shoes on some NFT token, I think it is safe to say your feeding the herd and fattening them for the slaughter house. I also think anyone listening to this FURU after a failed attempt at a Unicorn Token for e-sports gambling failed you deserve what you get.
SHOW ME THE BEEF!
I am open to evidence that points to higher levels, but I fail to see any that is more convincing than the evidence I provided. Don't come to the game with your 1 and 4 hour charts, or your indicators and oscillators that are pointing to higher levels, show me signs of buyers, not signs of what happened, but what is happening. Show Me the BEEF!
The evidence is clearly pointing to another leg down which is why I did not issue another long signal last night. Sure the setup is there, yes I did mention it to our followers, but then I took the time to look at all the evidence and went with "pass on this one".
By the way how are those stock market dip buyers doing? Many still do not understand when to buy a dip and when you are being a dip for buying!!! Many more do not even understand how to buy a dip, but that is for another 45 minute read on an article I probably won't produce ;).
Feel free to provide evidence, don't come at me with your small game, you need some big boy pants to step on the court here. I am open to opinion, open to evidence, I want to see some, but if you are going to post "your wrong", and stupid crap like that move on over, your Ground BEEF!
Just a note: The 80's and 90's are still the greatest decade there ever was, there were no cupcakes, we had a smoking area in High School, we fixed our own cars, we worked for minimum wage, and were happy to have a job, and people had thick skin. So if I offended some Vegan with my article, I apologize in advance. NOT!!
Now get out there and enjoy the weekend and don't feed in the hype. Someone talks about Bitcoin is a buy and a deal here, it is going to 100k by June, ask them "Show me the BEEF!"
Well we know Michael Saylor is surely piling into Bitcoin, but he is clearly not playing with his own capital, it is the capital of the sheep flocking to Bitcoin because quite frankly, all the big names are jumping in!
But price action is not indicative of all this capital flowing in, quite the contrary, it is more indicative of capital flowing out, at least for now.
From a technical perspective the outside candle on the weekly, in an area of resistance should throw up a flag, but for many their 1 hour chart is screaming wrong, errrr I mean long! Now we are getting consolidation at the lower end of the candle with a bearish pinbar which may result in lower prices and a buying opportunity. At least for those of us who stuck to our plan, ignored the hype, and want to buy a real dip, not be a dip.
As my granny used to say Show Me the BEEF!!! Ok that was a great 80's commercial but her point is well made, so lets take a look at some charts quickly and see if there is any evidence for a leg lower in the near term.
Proportionality:
We determine a cycle based on proportionality of structures. Is this a fractal cycle, a broader cycle or a super cycle. The corrections circled in orange are within proportionality of one another, however the current correction is not. It is more proportional to the broader correction back in last November and January that lasted a month. Is it proportional to the 2018 super cycle? well time will tell, still way to early to say that, and IMO most likely not.
Lets also take a look at the initial swings higher out of the correction. Back in November the initial minor cycle consolidation happen at a new high, the one in January not so much, so this is a sign that buying strength is fading in the last bullish run.
Had it not been for Saylor's epic 1 billion dollar purchase at an average cost of 52k, probably would never have pushed 57k, but who cares. Had he been patient, he could be buying now, maybe he is, but still we are showing signs of a market topping, not gaining momentum.
Back to proportionality. This is likely going to be a broader multi week, couple month corrective cycle. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe we rally to 100k by June, but show me the beef! No I don't want to hear "so and so is bullish", I want to see the BEEF, and not on your one hour potted possum chart.
But wait, I am serving a multi course BEEF article here so on to evidence of strength!
Strength of Correction:
The Initial correction back in November was quickly bought up with strength giving us an extended "B" leg where the second leg of the correction actually went higher than the prior high. The "C" leg was rather flat, which is a sign that buyers are still actively accumulating at these levels.
The correction back in January off 40k was also met with "buy the dippers" and nearly retested the prior high. The "C" leg dipped slightly lower than leg "A" but buyers liked the 30k area and the rally resumed. However this correction was showing a little more exhaustion than the prior which was rather strong and one we took a long trade off of.
The current correction looks much much weaker than the prior two of proportional relevance, hence me starting with a proportional structures chart. The initial rally from "buy the dippers" failed to take out the 50% retrace, let alone get near a retest of the former high. That is not a sign that buyers are still jumping in hand over fist, it is a sign that buyers are buying fake meat, yes that plant based stuff that tastes like crap, and sellers are looming around 50k.
So where there is a weak "B" leg, I am expecting a much weaker "C" leg. Look at the 1st dip again, Strong "B" leg, Strong "C" leg. Second structure, pretty strong "B" leg, "C" leg held up, but this "B" leg is weak, and this opens the door for a weak or very weak "C" leg.
Once again you have a counter argument? "Show me the BEEF".
False Starts:
Corrections are difficult to trade because there are often many "false starts". Just look at all the false starts back in February before one stuck! So a weaker "B" leg possibly, definitely a weaker initial bounce, and several false starts once again.
As mentioned to our followers, 52k is an important level to clear here we do not want to see it rejected. OUCH!!!! Rejection like that hot chic from high school that you finally got the courage to ask out, and she said no because she likes beef eating linebackers, not vegan eating cupcakes. Bitcoin is also doing the same, those finally get the courage to jump in and BOOM Rejection! Ouch!!!!
So once again we are looking to retest the 44k area, but quite frankly if we take out 46500 I believe selling pressure ticks up, and we push right through 44k in a solid move down.
As for my plan and strategy it has not changed. Gets into the 30k region I am a buyer, pushes into the upper 50's mid 60's I am a seller it is quite simple to say the least. What is not simple for most is having the patience to wait. You have a better plan? "SHOW ME THE BEEF!"
Most simply want to be in the action, jump on board as Guru after Guru come out of the closet yelling "Bitcoin to the moon baby", like a NC vs Duke basketball game in the 90's with Dick Vitale at the Mic.
So with Mr. Wonderful, Mr. Mavs and Mr. "I'll buy Bitcoin at any price with your money" and the CEO of Kraken going to "infinite and beyond" still calling for ridiculous levels and the market is not moving higher, "SHOW ME THE BEEF" as to why we are not at 65k by now?
Don't look at the evidence, Don't try and understand why Bitcoin is not rallying "to infinity and beyond", as big name Bulls start coming out of the pasture like cattle being led to slaughter.
Wait lets not forget the push into crapperrrrrrrr alt coins like Doge, which you soon will be able to buy a Tesla with and your favorite Mav's memorabilia. Talk about hoping on Elon's coat tail.
Well if your business viewer ship is down 75% and you are hoping Doge Coin sparks enthusiasm, and idiots are going to buy pictures of Mavs shoes on some NFT token, I think it is safe to say your feeding the herd and fattening them for the slaughter house. I also think anyone listening to this FURU after a failed attempt at a Unicorn Token for e-sports gambling failed you deserve what you get.
SHOW ME THE BEEF!
I am open to evidence that points to higher levels, but I fail to see any that is more convincing than the evidence I provided. Don't come to the game with your 1 and 4 hour charts, or your indicators and oscillators that are pointing to higher levels, show me signs of buyers, not signs of what happened, but what is happening. Show Me the BEEF!
The evidence is clearly pointing to another leg down which is why I did not issue another long signal last night. Sure the setup is there, yes I did mention it to our followers, but then I took the time to look at all the evidence and went with "pass on this one".
By the way how are those stock market dip buyers doing? Many still do not understand when to buy a dip and when you are being a dip for buying!!! Many more do not even understand how to buy a dip, but that is for another 45 minute read on an article I probably won't produce ;).
Feel free to provide evidence, don't come at me with your small game, you need some big boy pants to step on the court here. I am open to opinion, open to evidence, I want to see some, but if you are going to post "your wrong", and stupid crap like that move on over, your Ground BEEF!
Just a note: The 80's and 90's are still the greatest decade there ever was, there were no cupcakes, we had a smoking area in High School, we fixed our own cars, we worked for minimum wage, and were happy to have a job, and people had thick skin. So if I offended some Vegan with my article, I apologize in advance. NOT!!
Now get out there and enjoy the weekend and don't feed in the hype. Someone talks about Bitcoin is a buy and a deal here, it is going to 100k by June, ask them "Show me the BEEF!"
Nota
I try to add some humor along with education to my articles. If you are offended by this article, go eat some green egg and ham! I don't have time for cupcakes!Nota
Just to clarify, and those that have followed my for years now will validate this. My goal was always to buy when it was hated, starting from 13,300 and all the way down to $4500. At that time I was called an idiot for buying. I ignored the trolls and stuck with my plan. My plan also called for removing my initial risk equity so my remaining inventory was free and clear, no risk at all. This bull market has allowed me to remove my initial risk x 2.5 nearly. So essentially I am paid to own what I have by those jumping in now. Goes to 1 million a coin, I'm still a multi millionaire, goes to zero, I still made money!!! So at this point, and I have been very clear, unless I get a big sell, I sit and wait. I can use the capital to trade around my position, trades have stops, preserve capital. I'm not bearish on Bitcoin, I am long Bitcoin, but this is not my first rodeo, and I have been caught in the hype only to see profits erode and what would have been a nice profit turn into a loss. Again and I emphasize this to all you young investors out there. Have an F'n plan, if you fail to plan you are planning for failure. A plan of greed will result in losses. What happens to Bitcoin if one of the major exchanges gets hacked? Ohhh that will never happen will it!!!
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