BTCUSD 4H WEEKEND UPDATE - 08/07/2018
Since 11,780.00 high where a cycle ended from 5,920.76, I propose a FLAT (3-3-5) which first sequence ended at 19/03/2018 low and then bitcoin bounced in a corrective 3 waves (FLAT again) to 9,948.98 high - 9,188.10 high / 6,427.16 low and 9,948.98 high. The last leg from 9,948.98 is proposed to have ended at 5,780.00 as RSI trendline is broken to the upside BUT that does not mean that we could have bought this level (daily is calling lower).
However, we have a motive 5 waves structures to the downside and enough swings to call the cycle from 9,948.98 ended but this structure can extend. Therefore, we have 5,780.00 as soft support and if you want to buy, do not open the stop lower, otherwise enter with a stop in the daily as per daily chart's green box.
In the RSI, we see a divergence forming and we have enough swing to the upside for the first cycle to end at current levels (marginal new high cannot be rules out) (purple 1).
Therefore, I don't like to buy at this level and would prefer to see a bullish sequence and buy the correction (purple 2) as long as we are above 5,780.00 for at least a bounce in a corrective 3 waves or to new highs.
Invalidation level to the downside remains 9,948.98 as in a bearish motive 5 waves, there is resistance but the origin of the move once the 3rd wave is completed.
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