Is 2017 Repeating Itself?

There's nothing fancy here, just a basic fractal between 2017 and 2019. So far we have similar size rallies taking place over similar length time frames.

We have what appears to be an A leg of similar length to the A leg of June 2017.

We have what appears to be a B leg in progress also similar in length to the B leg of the summer of 2017.

I expect the "B leg" to top out around the $13000-$13,100 area as fear of a double top kicks in thus leading to our eventual C leg.

I expect the C leg to take us down to at least $8200 and more likely down to the $7200 area in close proximity to the 19 week moving average and 61.8 fib levels.

Comentário:

As predicted our "B leg" topped out just over $13,000 in the $13200 area.

We now appear to be in the early stages of our larger time frame "C leg."

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Not much to report. We are well on our way to hitting the "C leg" target of $8300.

And I suspect we'll go further south than that.

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I'm seeing some fomo in the market now that we've broken above 10k again. Personally I am not a believer. This appears to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce. Unless we break 11k my analysis will remain that we are in the C leg with a target of $8200.

**My last update had a typo and said $8300 but the original analysis was $8200 and remains $8200.

Comentário:

After a dead cat bounce to relieve oversold conditions we seem to be steadily marching to a "lower low" on the daily charts.

My stance remains bearish with a minimum target of $8200.

To be clear, I still feel that we will likely see the 61.8 fib down in the $7300 area.

Comentário:

We have had a trend reversal taking us all the way to the 12k+ area. At this point I believe this fractal has ran its course, however I remain short for non related reasons.