BTC Top for this cycle

I recognized a sort of "pattern" for the ROI of BTC, taking the Halving as a starting point and the cycle top as the end. The ROI seems to be reduced by a factor of 0.22-0.27. For this reason I took the ROI of last cycle, starting from the Halving, and reduced it down to 25%. When I apply it to this cycle, it comes out that the top should be at around 169k.

To be honest, I will sell earlier than that just to reinvest the earnings into something else (Alts if it is Alt Season). Nonetheless, I believe the top is realistic given the circumstances with new institutions coming in and the adoption of BTC and other Cryptocurrencies for institutional portfolios.