BitcoinAtualizado BTC Daily chart 30th October 2023
After a nice rally BTCUSD is currently consolidation around the 34k area. On the daily chart we can see a double top forming which could lead to a correction in the near future.
In my opinion, a double-top + correction will be a good thing. If BTC can find support above the 32k support zone (previously an important resistance zone) the recent breakout will be validated and will convince more investors that the bullrun has indeed started resulting in more volume which is needed for the rally to continue.
On the more bearish side, if BTC falls through the 31k support line this could invalidate the recent rally. But, we already have a daily and weekly close above the 32k line and hopefully tomorrow even a monthly close, making it more and more likely for BTC to hold on to the newly conquered levels and finding support above 31-32k.
Small word of caution : Unexpected surprises are still possible depending on news about a BTC ETF, which is currently an import factor in determining the BTC price. If an ETF is approved, BTC will likely explode upward and won't need confirmation of the recent rally. If an ETF is rejected, we could lose all the recent gains even if BTC finds support above 32k.
This event will probably negate any form of technical analysis.
BTCUSD is currently consolidation around the 34k area. On the daily chart we can see a double top forming which could lead to a correction in the near future. In my opinion, a double-top + correction will be a good thing. If BTC can find support above the 32k support zone (previously an important resistance zone) the recent breakout will be validated and will convince more investors that the bullrun has indeed started resulting in more volume which is needed for the rally to continue.
On the more bearish side, if BTC falls through the 31k support line this could invalidate the recent rally. But, we already have a daily and weekly close above the 32k line and hopefully tomorrow even a monthly close, making it more and more likely for BTC to hold on to the newly conquered levels and finding support above 31-32k.
Small word of caution : Unexpected surprises are still possible depending on news about a BTC ETF, which is currently an import factor in determining the BTC price. If an ETF is approved, BTC will likely explode upward and won't need confirmation of the recent rally. If an ETF is rejected, we could lose all the recent gains even if BTC finds support above 32k.
This event will probably negate any form of technical analysis.
Nota
On the 4h chart we can see BTC consolidating in a pennant formation. Since the pennant is forming after and upward trend, a bullish breakout is more likely but a breakdown and correction towards 32k is possible.The levels to look out for are 34k and 35k. A breakdown beneath 34K will likely lead to a correction while a breakout above 35K could lead to another rally.
Nota
We had a break and close above 35k, which is a bullish sign but once BTC touched 36k BTC made a correction and dropped back below 35K. It's still too early to call but this could signal the end of the rally (for now).For a deeper correction to follow, BTC will likely form a bearish formation like a double top or head-and-shoulders. In this case i believe a HnS formation is more likely with shoulders at 35k, head at 35k and neckline around 33,5k-34k.
Nota
Small update : although a head and shoulders formation is still possible, BTC could also be forming an ascending channel (which we can see on the 4h chart). If an ascending channel has formed, we will see some more choppy upside in the near future. A word of caution, when we look at the RSI indicator we can see a bearish divergence which could mean a correction in the near future (breakdown from the ascending channel).
Nota
While BTC is still deciding it's next move, ETH has gone higher passing the 200MA line and succesfully retesting it for support. During a bullrun BTC, ETH and altcoins will climb one after the other so this could be another sign that the bullrun is indeed taking hold.A retest of 32K area is still possible but this will only confirm the bullrun (and would be bullish IMO).
A break below 30k would be bearish but I only see this happening as a reaction to really bad news (like a rug pull by the SEC on the BTC ETF applications).
Nota
BTC seems to be forming a pennant on the 4h chart (short term). Today we will likely see a breakout or breakdown from this pennant. Usually a pennant is a moment of consolidation before continuing the current trend upward, so a breakout is likely.On the other hand, we can detect a somewhat bearish divergence on the RSI which could indicate a breakdown.
Either way, as long as we stay above 31k, there is no need to worry.
Nota
In my previous updates i mentioned the ascending channel on the daily and the pennant forming on the 4h chart. On the 4h chart we can see that BTC had a small retracement back to the bottom pennant trendline before recovering and breaking the upper trendline. After a break there was a positive retest for support giving BTC enough strength to go higher. At the time of writing BTC is sitting at the upward trendline of the ascending channel.
BTC's next move is harder to predict, either we have a break from the channel allowing BTC to reach new highs OR we see another correction towards the lower channel line.
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