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The Bitcoin Lotto

Remember when the excitement of the lottery was all about the potential of life-changing wins from just a small ticket price? Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has emerged as the new frontier of that thrilling potential. Once priced at a humble $1,000, Bitcoin was accessible and brimming with promise. Today, with its value as high as $60,000, the landscape has undeniably transformed, offering new opportunities and considerations for investors worldwide.

Bitcoin isn't just a digital currency; it's a revolution that's reshaping financial markets, much like the anticipation of hitting the jackpot. However, unlike the traditional lottery, Bitcoin investment isn't purely about luck—it's about smart, informed decision-making, historical insight, and future potential. Imagine being part of a technological evolution that's not just a game of chance but also a calculated step toward financial empowerment.

When navigating these markets, you want to stay clear of the echo chambers. We have had tails of "98k next month and $135,000 In December" back in 2021.

The main issue with the sentiment at the current levels, are it seems everyone and their dog bought Bitcoin under $20,000 at the exact bottom. They were also calling longs at 69k.

It's an inflation beater, it's just had 12 ETF's approved, there's a price multiplier, sell your house and buy Bitcoin. It looks like Trump might win back the White House and of course, he has endorsed Bitcoin.

The question shouldn't really be "where does this go" instead it should be "why isn't it there yet".

I've joked a couple of times - If you bought a house at 69,000 in 2021 and now in 2024 it's worth 59,000 should you sell it or hold it, I have had replies like "You should have bought Bitcoin"...

This is not a bash against Crypto; it's knowing the value and understanding the perception vs reality dilemma.

The controlled aspect of the move up from 15k to 73 and that high being just enough of a liquidity grab much like 65k to 69k. Years apart, means there is a lot of control in an asset many claim "Cannot be controlled".

The sentiment was all about Freedom and liberty; no institutional control, no government control - Go Trump, Go Blackrock.

My questions remain, If you were lucky in at sub 10k prices - you have had a good trade (providing you profited obviously) Paper gains are not wins.

But where does the additional funding come from for a double of it's current price? Why are we not at 100k+ already after a Trump endorsement, a halving, a price multiplier, 12 ETF's approved?

The world of Social media has made it easier for keyboard warriors to catch every bottom, sell every top (yet never sell anything) and claim paper gains to the moon.

Investing doesn't need to be the same as a lotto ticket. It just needs a good understanding of why liquidity moves the way it does and who's side the profits usually come back to.

Anyway - food for thought this weekend! Have a good one.

Stay safe


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