🤖 #BTCLIVE - 02.09 🤖
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 02.09 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
25:75- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
50:50
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
90:10 - Bullish:Bearish
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
With the potential bearish announcement today we would expect some drop in BTC - trading at the top of the descending triangle would suggest this also if a rejection continues. Targets would be an initial 19.7k and then potential heavy drop to 18.8k as max pain price. Although I am not very confident we will spend that much time below 20k at all anymore. A break up out of this triangle just race up to 20.8k where the main resistance wand test will be if this is a proper bullish move.
Ultimately things are still pretty bearish short term although there are some huge bullish macro factors in play that are likely going to kick in soon, 18.8k is my current max pain although I am not doubting we will even see that as buyers seem to be picking up anything below 20k at the moment. We want to be breaking out fully from the is descending wedge on the daily and then it is off to the races with a pretty conservative 22k on the cards as initial target.
Technical Analysis Bullish Factors:
+ Bullish Divergence on the 1D
+ Bullish Descending wedge on the 1D
+ Oversold on the Weekly
+ Reversal signal on the Weekly
+ Wave Dip signal on the daily
Technical Analysis Bearish Factors:
- Oversold on the 5min
- Hitting Trendline resistance
- Bearish Descending Triangle Pattern
- Bearish Divergence on the 1hr
- Bearish Pullback signal on the 1hr
- Bearish ABCD pattern on the 5min
- 200EMA resistance on the 1hr
NEWS:
Bull:
+ Brazils largest bank unibanco hiring BTC software devs
+ ETH Merge moves closer
Bear:
- Unemployment Rate expected to remain level
Issue: Interest rates can only go up if the unemployment rate is fine. Which could cause a dump
- US dollar smashes 20 Year high, bad for BTC and all other stocks
- Saylor being sued for Tax Fraud
METRICS (Last 24 hours):
EXCHANGE:
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
MINERS:
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
Low revenue
Last Value:
0.47098618
24H%:
-6%
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Puell Multiple - Miner's revenue is decreasing significantly compared to the cost they put in. This could indicate that price is undervalued along with the increasing miner's motive to hold their coins.
Moderate revenue
Last Value:
0.5305056
24H%:
-2%
ON-CHAIN:
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
Realizing loss
Last Value:
0.96664604
24H%:
-2%
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
Low long-term holders' movement
Last Value:
0.42857142
- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Capitulation phase where they are currently facing unrealized losses. It indicates the decreasing motive to realize loss which leads to a decrease in sell pressure.
Captulation
Last Value:
-0.07041003
24H%:
-14%
- Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -24.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Active Addresses -The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -40.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED NEGATIVE -
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has decreased by -40.00% compared to yesterday.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively weak in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
DERIVATIVES
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
Last Value:
0.00315397
24H%:
-521%
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers.
Buy:
0.60559476
Sell:
0.39440524
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend
Last Value:
8,406,535,733.99
24H%:
+2%
7D%:
-1%
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Liquidation - 14988488.82 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Long:
14,988,488.82
Short:
8,328,677.12
MARKET SENTIMENT:
[ Photo ]
Fear & Greed Index - Sep 02, 2022:
Today: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Yesterday: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 25 😱
Avg. 2W: 26 😱
Avg. 1M: 32 😣
Avg. 2M: 29 😱
Avg. 3M: 23 😱
Avg. 6M: 24 😱
Avg. 1Y: 33 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $20,141
24h Low: $19,615
24h High: $20,188
MC Change: 1.7B (0.4%)
Dominance: 37.5%
24h: 0.6%
7d: -6.8%
14d: -13.4%
30d: -12.6%
60d: 4.3%
200d: -52.3%
1y: -58.7%
@FearGreedIndex
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
25:75- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
50:50
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
90:10 - Bullish:Bearish
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
With the potential bearish announcement today we would expect some drop in BTC - trading at the top of the descending triangle would suggest this also if a rejection continues. Targets would be an initial 19.7k and then potential heavy drop to 18.8k as max pain price. Although I am not very confident we will spend that much time below 20k at all anymore. A break up out of this triangle just race up to 20.8k where the main resistance wand test will be if this is a proper bullish move.
Ultimately things are still pretty bearish short term although there are some huge bullish macro factors in play that are likely going to kick in soon, 18.8k is my current max pain although I am not doubting we will even see that as buyers seem to be picking up anything below 20k at the moment. We want to be breaking out fully from the is descending wedge on the daily and then it is off to the races with a pretty conservative 22k on the cards as initial target.
Technical Analysis Bullish Factors:
+ Bullish Divergence on the 1D
+ Bullish Descending wedge on the 1D
+ Oversold on the Weekly
+ Reversal signal on the Weekly
+ Wave Dip signal on the daily
Technical Analysis Bearish Factors:
- Oversold on the 5min
- Hitting Trendline resistance
- Bearish Descending Triangle Pattern
- Bearish Divergence on the 1hr
- Bearish Pullback signal on the 1hr
- Bearish ABCD pattern on the 5min
- 200EMA resistance on the 1hr
NEWS:
Bull:
+ Brazils largest bank unibanco hiring BTC software devs
+ ETH Merge moves closer
Bear:
- Unemployment Rate expected to remain level
Issue: Interest rates can only go up if the unemployment rate is fine. Which could cause a dump
- US dollar smashes 20 Year high, bad for BTC and all other stocks
- Saylor being sued for Tax Fraud
METRICS (Last 24 hours):
EXCHANGE:
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure.
- Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure.
MINERS:
/ Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average.
Low revenue
Last Value:
0.47098618
24H%:
-6%
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Puell Multiple - Miner's revenue is decreasing significantly compared to the cost they put in. This could indicate that price is undervalued along with the increasing miner's motive to hold their coins.
Moderate revenue
Last Value:
0.5305056
24H%:
-2%
ON-CHAIN:
+ aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom.
Realizing loss
Last Value:
0.96664604
24H%:
-2%
+ Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins
Low long-term holders' movement
Last Value:
0.42857142
- Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Capitulation phase where they are currently facing unrealized losses. It indicates the decreasing motive to realize loss which leads to a decrease in sell pressure.
Captulation
Last Value:
-0.07041003
24H%:
-14%
- Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -24.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Active Addresses -The number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has decreased by -40.00% compared to yesterday.
TURNED NEGATIVE -
+ Transactions - The total number of transactions has decreased by -40.00% compared to yesterday.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively weak in Coinbase.
- Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong.
- Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment.
DERIVATIVES
TURNED POSITIVE +
+ Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders.
Last Value:
0.00315397
24H%:
-521%
+ Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers.
Buy:
0.60559476
Sell:
0.39440524
/ Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend
Last Value:
8,406,535,733.99
24H%:
+2%
7D%:
-1%
TURNED NEGATIVE -
- Liquidation - 14988488.82 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Long:
14,988,488.82
Short:
8,328,677.12
MARKET SENTIMENT:
[ Photo ]
Fear & Greed Index - Sep 02, 2022:
Today: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Yesterday: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 25 😱
Avg. 2W: 26 😱
Avg. 1M: 32 😣
Avg. 2M: 29 😱
Avg. 3M: 23 😱
Avg. 6M: 24 😱
Avg. 1Y: 33 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $20,141
24h Low: $19,615
24h High: $20,188
MC Change: 1.7B (0.4%)
Dominance: 37.5%
24h: 0.6%
7d: -6.8%
14d: -13.4%
30d: -12.6%
60d: 4.3%
200d: -52.3%
1y: -58.7%
@FearGreedIndex
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