BTC ALL TIME history chart analysis to predict current bottom

According to the Tradingview Bitcoin all time history index we are in the very macro ascending channel. Based on the PA of previous two cycles bottom I created 2 scenarios of current bottom. The first idea is we will be ranging between two averages EMA 21 weekly and EMA 200 weekly until capitulation that would bring us levels of 20K. The other idea is that capitulation will come faster so we will go below EMA 200 and will spend there some time needed for accumulation. As an extra confirmation we can take fibo levels 0.2 and 0.3 I put on the chart. Look like everything we will see soon will happen in the zone between these two levels.