No TA Expert - Obviously

28 de dez. de 2023

The basis of this began back in June 2021 when I was chatting with a buddy about where I see things going with BTC based on cycles. This was pre the solidification of ETFs (although they already existed in Australia and other countries) and I was looking at pure timelines with nothing else in mind. Coincidentally, the first sweet spot lined up with the anticipated timeframe for settlement on the sale of a property, and I was planning to cream some dirty dirty fiat off and stack sats. Unfortunately, the market wasn't prepared to come to the asking price for the property, so it was rented out instead. Let's see how the next few years play out with this. I'm not a trader. My timeframes are long term (5 yrs min).

6 de jan.

Nota

Curious looking back on this. As I've said before, I'm not a TA, and these are just some interesting lines.

The methodology to draw the sweet spot for accumulation was based on tracing back the low of the previous cycle to the halvening (~Feb 2019 to ~May 2020). I carried this forward to set up future sweet spots. They are about 4 months long as I feel this is a reasonable time for accumulation.

It's not about catching the exact bottom or top, but being in a healthy range for my needs. You can call that vague if you like, however, if this was the range you bought in, and the exit sweet spot was where you sold, I would say that is a win. Not financial advice. I'm just a guy on the internet with digital crayons.

The exit sweet spot is drawn based on the low to the high - duh.

The next accumulation sweet spot is a slightly longer low to low as I do agree there feels like a lengthening cycle playing out.

The orange lines, from memory, were looking at a breaking in support - I can't recall, but they mattered at the time so I left them there as they played a part in plotting the white line as a support on an ascending triangle.

The purpose for this note is to help me remember what I drew, and why (my wife asked me what the lines meant, and I had to really think back) so.... Here we are!

Given we are just over 12 months on from when the idea was published - I wish I knew more about TV to do this sooner - I'm not motivated to sell, even if we hit another ATH double top. I'm firmly of the opinion that the supply will potentially to become so scarce that under price manipulation we will likely see a market dip with OTC buys gobbling up all they can before the market can respond with timely repricing. Once you have sold you may not be able to get your BTC back...

Why do I think this is likely? I'm seeing 1K+ spreads on some platforms at the moment, and I don't think all of this adds up to buy low, sell high, buy back in low potentiality.

HODL

6 de jan.

Trade ativo

UPDATE: I have no friggin idea why "Kellanova" was tagged in on this when I used $ 1K - it should be per the below.

Why do I think this is likely? I'm seeing $ 1K+ spreads on some platforms at the moment, and I don't think all of this adds up to buy low, sell high, buy back in low potentiality.

See. Proof I'm still figuring this stuff out.