BTC has falling below the 21 weekly EMA for the first time since March 2020, which resulted in a black swan event. Currently there are multiple inefficiencies and CME gaps below the price to cause a similar black swan event, but this of course is not guaranteed.
Looking at the immediate future, we can see BTC has painted a reversal dome and bounced off strong support. It is also within an LTF falling wedge. I expect a breakout of the falling wedge to test range resistance which is confluent with the reversal dome. A breakout can happen now or BTC can further drop to the lower range within the falling wedge or outside to retest the falling wedge.
If BTC falls further, it is of course more bearish, and a relief rally will just be a bearish retest of the 21 weekly EMA. Even if BTC breaks above the 21 weekly EMA it might be brief like on the 5th of March 2020.
Conclusion: the trend is technically bearish until a strong pump above resistances and EMAs.
Looking at the immediate future, we can see BTC has painted a reversal dome and bounced off strong support. It is also within an LTF falling wedge. I expect a breakout of the falling wedge to test range resistance which is confluent with the reversal dome. A breakout can happen now or BTC can further drop to the lower range within the falling wedge or outside to retest the falling wedge.
If BTC falls further, it is of course more bearish, and a relief rally will just be a bearish retest of the 21 weekly EMA. Even if BTC breaks above the 21 weekly EMA it might be brief like on the 5th of March 2020.
Conclusion: the trend is technically bearish until a strong pump above resistances and EMAs.
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