Bitcoin crystal ball

Every investor and trader has at sometime wished they had a crystal ball. You can do your own due diligence, taking the time to do technical and fundamental analysis weighing market sentiment and still not be 100% correct every single time. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. So with that said, if you look back at Bitcoin's price discovery history, you can see the general and specific trades you "should" have made. However, how do we extrapolate this data into future trades we "should" make?

For me, It's all based on probability and risk management. I look for high probability and low risk trades. Most of the time a trade is not ready for that perfect timing to trade. It takes planning and patience to setup a great entry and exit. The old adage, “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” That's why investors simply hold on with a long term bullish trend. But, what if you had a crystal ball? Then obviously you would time selling the major tops and buying major lows.

Here's a Bitcoin 1 week chart with Heikin Ashi candlesticks without wicks, to take out the visual noise. In the past 7 years, I have identified only 7 major long trades and 6 major short trades. Why is this important? It means that the last best time to go long was the week of 9/9/24. And it also means the next trade is a short trade. This does not mean the timing is to short Bitcoin today. It just means that if you had a crystal ball you would know when to exit your long position. For now Bitcoin is still a long to hold on to.

BTC/USD crystal ball trades:

#7
long = $54,566 w/o 9/9/24
short = ? w/o ?
profit = ?
time = ?

#6
long = $24,900 w/o 9/11/23
short = $72,777 w/o 4/8/24
profit = $47,877 = 2.92x
time = 7 months

#5
long = $16,543 w/o 1/2/23
short = $31,050 w/o 4/10/23
profit = $14,507 = 1.88x
time = 3 months

#4
long = $29,302 w/o 7/19/21
short = $69,000 w/o 10/8/21
profit = $39,698 = 2.35x
time = 3 months

#3
long = $5853 w/o 3/30/20
short = $64,899 w/o 4/12/21
profit = $59,046 = 11.09x
time = 14 months

#2
long = $3341 w/o 2/4/19
short = $12,320 w/o 8/5/19
profit = $8979 = 3.69x
time = 7 months

#1
long = $1758 w/o 7/10/17
short = $16,275 w/o 1/8/18
profit = $14,517 = 9.26x
time = 6 months