A look at Higher Time-frames (HTFs): Log Fibs Rule

2 de fev. de 2020

Hi there, friends! Hope you doing well.

So, as we entered a new month, and are soon starting a new week, it's good idea to revisit the charts for these high time-frames and see where we are. As you can see, log fibs are just killing it on this task (thankfully, Tradingview brought us this feature. Wished they've done it in 2017).

Ok, so here what we have:

• A great bounce on larger 0.236 fib. retrc. level, on Monthly chart*, gave us a fantastic January, engulfing 2 down candles' real body, and turning monthly TD count to green 1. *(6487, from ~170-20k USD wave; Bounce level also corresponds to 0.5 retrc. level from 3.2-13.8k USD wave on Weekly chart).
  Bouncing on such high fib level, BTW, is a nice sign of bullishness, specially after having bounced also on a high, 0.382, level, on Dec/18. It may be hard to believe, but yes, even after falling from 20k to 3.2k (losing 83+% value), bouncing on a 0.382 level is a strong bullish sign: it is the first usual retracement level from which traders expect an asset may bounce from, if it's very bullish). Good!
  
  
• Back to present day, movement brought us quickly to where we stand at the moment. It happens now that next 2k USD range, represented also by red area on Weekly chart, is definitely going to be challenging, as we're close to key resistance levels -- depicted and commented on both monthly and weekly charts. This includes a wave 5 target from the Daily chart, which I'll publish soon as well.
  
  
• So, a break above January's high, which may come with the turn of the week, may bring in some large players trading monthly TD (green 2 above green 1), but it can also become a bull trap, if such players don't really show up. Pay attention to volume, OBV and Open Interest. My enhanced Volume Indicator can help with the task, as it shows what margin traders are doing (on BFX). Make sure you check it out.
  
  
• Pay attention also to the nearest supporting trend line. While price is above it, there is still hope. Otherwise, we should see a correction. The fact we seem to be making a rising wedge (visible on Weekly chart) also suggests a correction is near.
  
  
• Next week is a TD 5 on Weekly. Even though positive, from my experience, TD 5's are prone to be counter-trend. So, let's be careful.
  
  
• To conclude, look, on monthly chart, how the halving period interestingly coincides with the apex of the second larger triangle we are in. If we don't manage to break and sustain above the higher downtrend line, @11790 for current monthly candle, we will likely see BTCUSD break below 6400, and reach the lower uptrend line, perhaps @~5.4/5.6k levels. This would complete a downside target from a smaller descending triangle, visible on Weekly chart, as well as 0.618 retracement level, on same chart.
  

Interesting times. Let's trade it wisely!

And always remember: trade correctly and lose little, so you can stay in the game.
Do it, consistently, and making money will be a consequence.

Best of success!

PHInkTrade