BTC UPDATE 7/3

Daily:
Sentiment: Bullish
Trend: Down
Flow: Negative
Nearest support/ demand cluster: 56.5k-58.5k
Nearest potential resistance: 62-62.5k

4hr:
Sentiment: Neutral
Trend: Down
Nearest support/Demand cluster: 56.5k-58k
Nearest potential resistance: 62-62.5k

1hr:
Sentiment: Bullish
Trend: Down
Nearest support/demand cluster: 59.5k-60k
Nearest potential resistance: 60.7k

Bigger picture we’re in a choppy downtrend at the bottom of a rangebound market so it’s hard for me to like a short for anything more than a scalp unless we break this range bearish. The higher probability is a long swing mean reversion type trade given daily sentiment/positioning.

NFP next catalyst I’m watching to see how BTC reacts. It’s the sloppiest read because Historically there is more of a neutral correlation between yields and BTC so I decided to focus on the last month where It has had a strong positive correlation to yields (although it’s a low confidence one).

If NFP strong and yields go higher + correlation holds = BTC higher.
If NFP strong and yields go higher + correlation weakens= BTC lower

If NFP weak/soft and yields go lower + correlation holds= BTC lower
If NFP weak/soft and yields go lower + correlations weakens= BTC higher

Scalps:
Short: Any rips into 4hr/Daily 62.5k resistance before Friday worth a scalp TIER 1/2 short otherwise Tier 1 short into top of hourly DTL

Long: Any dips back toward 1hr/4hr/daily support/bottom of DTL worth a tier 1 scalp long or if we can break that 1hr DTL resistance of 60.7k if buying breakouts

Swings:

Long: Mean Reversion Tier 2 long (w hedge) with a PT of the top of the range at 72k and a stop of 56kish. Nice almost 3:1 but keep in mind the risk is elevated with NFP catalyst on Friday hence the hedge. Alternatively a tier 1 swing starter and decide whether to add/cut after reaction.