Elliot Wave count for possible BTC short run.
Atualizado
I put this together last night based on seeing things heading lower, at the time it had not hit my #2 target. This is an Elliot Wave count that is different than what other people are seeing. So far my first low has been accurate. My experience with crypto is that it likes to make really sloppy and undefined moves that take a very long time. OR sharp unpredictable swings that make us all nauseaus. This is even more true of BCH which I am also posting an EW analysis of.
I don't expect this run to last longer than these waves before heading lower. I am not convinced that the bear market is over and am trading accordingly. If it goes lower right now then we are out of the count and this is invalid.
Personally, I think that this is a good entry point if looking for a short trade, and willing to take a LOT of risk. I actually think that things could and probably will go a LOT lower (maybe around $1,300). This is partially coming from Arcane Bear (on YouTube) who I think is very insightful for swing trading strategy. LNE, Excavo and GoldBug are also very good here on Trading View.
My own strategy has been what I call strategic investing where I make a few trades every few months. When the market is not doing anything I feel strongly about I just leave it alone, which is what I have done for all of 2018 until now. Since I made the mistake of not selling when everything was at it's high in Feb, I have just been HODLING to all my core crypto assets which I expect to do for a couple of YEARS before they really recover and make great moves again. But I bought low enough that it doesn't matter too much to me. If this EW count is correct I am exiting my trading stack on wave 5 to hold and buy back at the lower levels that I expect and also for the sake of liquidity in the upcoming 2019 economic sh"*tstorm that is unaviodable at this point.
Aside from the Stock markets and housing prices going pear shaped, I expect layoffs and a much needed hailstorm in the blood-sucking FANGS markets. Since I lived in Silicon Valley I can say without a doubt that those tech stocks (and those who work for them) are deeply in need of a dose of reality. To say that I hate them is probably an understatement. Let's just start with the Google censorship; if you haven't heard of it already look up project Dragonfly which is aimed at China and the subject of congressional hearings. When I lived in Silicon Valley, my 9 year old son played baseball with a kid who's Dad worked for Google and the Dad's attitude towards all the consolidation of News to just 5 big companies (deciding on everything you are allowed to see and read) was one of nonchalant acceptance. I find this disgusting.
Also, none of the kids in SV go out to play anymore. They just stay indoors and watch their devices and get trained to be gay by these giant corporations. Seriously, there are way more gay kids now than would be normal or naturally occurring. This is an extension of US culture that is pushing this as a media agenda. I have always had gay and lesbian friends, but since I have known so many in my lifetime I also know just how commonly they were molested and abused. I have no problem with it as a naturally occurring phenom, but to push kids into it as a fad or trend is evil. And that is what is happening. This is extra evil since there is no accompanying attention to the emotional and psychological damage caused by molestation or a call for radical and aggressive destruction of those who commit crimes against children; which would be the only sane and just attitude to hold. The media - or rather the pedophiles who control it - are training this next generation to be victims, so they have plenty of easy target in the future; that is what this is really about - so protect your kids, nieces and nephews. These are the same people who have taken control of BTC.
FORKS - have been great and the thing that I am most happy about from HODLING. When crypto has looked be hopeless, I kept getting handed free money by the fork fairy. Especially from BCH who gave me thousands of Bitcoin Candy, then on CoinEx I got tons of CET tokens and most recently I got free BSV (Bitcoin Satoshi Vision). Politics aside, all of these additional coins have amounted to some tidy dividends that have allowed me to take profits in the middle of the worst of these bear times. Other forks like Bitcoin Gold and Diamond have been good too, although I am firmly in the BCH camp and think BTC and it's derivatives are not the ones for the future. It is also significant that BCH is having it's own babies and does not depend on BTC. In fact all of my dividends during this Bear year have come from BCH.
I have videos about crypto on YOUTUBE as SleepWoke. I also have a few posts on YOURS as AstrologyChick and my strategy there still holds despite the Bear Market (although currently Yours.org is not loading - censorship?).
Once the Bull gets going again (probably late in 2019) then my Yours.org strategy will be back in play. As I said on Yours about a year ago; ALL OF CRYPTO IS IN A WAR and it will last two years. The WAR is between BTC and BCH. BCH will win (or you'd better hope it does because if it doesn't we are all headed towards a dystopian future of complete and total physical and mental enslavement). We are one year into the war, so it won't be until the end of 2019 that we actually have any real idea where the carnage has taken place, or who the good and bad guys really are. We are all flying blind right now my friends (by design), it would be good to remember that.
I am NOT a trader and just putting ideas out there based on my couple of years in the crypto market where I have done very well based on my instincts. This cannot and should not be taken as trading advice, just the mad mind meanderings of a free-minded and forward-thinking chick.
I don't expect this run to last longer than these waves before heading lower. I am not convinced that the bear market is over and am trading accordingly. If it goes lower right now then we are out of the count and this is invalid.
Personally, I think that this is a good entry point if looking for a short trade, and willing to take a LOT of risk. I actually think that things could and probably will go a LOT lower (maybe around $1,300). This is partially coming from Arcane Bear (on YouTube) who I think is very insightful for swing trading strategy. LNE, Excavo and GoldBug are also very good here on Trading View.
My own strategy has been what I call strategic investing where I make a few trades every few months. When the market is not doing anything I feel strongly about I just leave it alone, which is what I have done for all of 2018 until now. Since I made the mistake of not selling when everything was at it's high in Feb, I have just been HODLING to all my core crypto assets which I expect to do for a couple of YEARS before they really recover and make great moves again. But I bought low enough that it doesn't matter too much to me. If this EW count is correct I am exiting my trading stack on wave 5 to hold and buy back at the lower levels that I expect and also for the sake of liquidity in the upcoming 2019 economic sh"*tstorm that is unaviodable at this point.
Aside from the Stock markets and housing prices going pear shaped, I expect layoffs and a much needed hailstorm in the blood-sucking FANGS markets. Since I lived in Silicon Valley I can say without a doubt that those tech stocks (and those who work for them) are deeply in need of a dose of reality. To say that I hate them is probably an understatement. Let's just start with the Google censorship; if you haven't heard of it already look up project Dragonfly which is aimed at China and the subject of congressional hearings. When I lived in Silicon Valley, my 9 year old son played baseball with a kid who's Dad worked for Google and the Dad's attitude towards all the consolidation of News to just 5 big companies (deciding on everything you are allowed to see and read) was one of nonchalant acceptance. I find this disgusting.
Also, none of the kids in SV go out to play anymore. They just stay indoors and watch their devices and get trained to be gay by these giant corporations. Seriously, there are way more gay kids now than would be normal or naturally occurring. This is an extension of US culture that is pushing this as a media agenda. I have always had gay and lesbian friends, but since I have known so many in my lifetime I also know just how commonly they were molested and abused. I have no problem with it as a naturally occurring phenom, but to push kids into it as a fad or trend is evil. And that is what is happening. This is extra evil since there is no accompanying attention to the emotional and psychological damage caused by molestation or a call for radical and aggressive destruction of those who commit crimes against children; which would be the only sane and just attitude to hold. The media - or rather the pedophiles who control it - are training this next generation to be victims, so they have plenty of easy target in the future; that is what this is really about - so protect your kids, nieces and nephews. These are the same people who have taken control of BTC.
FORKS - have been great and the thing that I am most happy about from HODLING. When crypto has looked be hopeless, I kept getting handed free money by the fork fairy. Especially from BCH who gave me thousands of Bitcoin Candy, then on CoinEx I got tons of CET tokens and most recently I got free BSV (Bitcoin Satoshi Vision). Politics aside, all of these additional coins have amounted to some tidy dividends that have allowed me to take profits in the middle of the worst of these bear times. Other forks like Bitcoin Gold and Diamond have been good too, although I am firmly in the BCH camp and think BTC and it's derivatives are not the ones for the future. It is also significant that BCH is having it's own babies and does not depend on BTC. In fact all of my dividends during this Bear year have come from BCH.
I have videos about crypto on YOUTUBE as SleepWoke. I also have a few posts on YOURS as AstrologyChick and my strategy there still holds despite the Bear Market (although currently Yours.org is not loading - censorship?).
Once the Bull gets going again (probably late in 2019) then my Yours.org strategy will be back in play. As I said on Yours about a year ago; ALL OF CRYPTO IS IN A WAR and it will last two years. The WAR is between BTC and BCH. BCH will win (or you'd better hope it does because if it doesn't we are all headed towards a dystopian future of complete and total physical and mental enslavement). We are one year into the war, so it won't be until the end of 2019 that we actually have any real idea where the carnage has taken place, or who the good and bad guys really are. We are all flying blind right now my friends (by design), it would be good to remember that.
I am NOT a trader and just putting ideas out there based on my couple of years in the crypto market where I have done very well based on my instincts. This cannot and should not be taken as trading advice, just the mad mind meanderings of a free-minded and forward-thinking chick.
Nota
Actually my title is wrong, this should read that it is a long position on a short term trade. Sorry about that, just getting used to the TV tools here.Nota
This idea is still valid. It may take a long time to develop - maybe through to March, but these are still the levels I expect to see hit on the way to a turnaround in the market and a new bull run.As I said above, in 2018 crypto moves have been sloooowwww. I believe purposely so as those who control the financial markets do not want it to grow so fast as to be out of their control. As of now, they still have a firm grip over our financial markets and for this reason the whole of crypto is moving slowly towards it's next run. It will pick up momentum as it does so and make more parabolic moves like it did in Feb of 2018. What we have seen so far is tiny compared to what is coming.
The main difference now is that you REALLY have to know what you are doing in the now incredibly complex world of crypto. You need to know which coins to hold and why. We are still heading towards all kinds of financial instability in the US and world current financial systems and this instability will take down 95% of the exchanges and 95% of the coins out there, so be sure to do your due diligence and be sure you keep a hold of your coins except just for the moment you make the trades. When chaos is coming, smart people always minimize their risk.
ALSO - for the record, I do NOT think that BTC Bitcoin will be the strongest or best performer in the next bull run. Back in early 2017 I was telling anyone who would listen that they needed BTC (only 1 or 2 people actually listened) and now I am saying that BTC is just ok. It cannot be used as money and ultimately money is what the most universal - and financially successful - of cryptos is going to be used for.
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