Rough Bull/Bear Targets in Wyckoff scenario

11 de nov. de 2021

Based on previous thoughts on the alleged Wyckoff distribution pattern seen during spring bull run, I copied the bars from that time to check for correlation. No arithmetic valuation for this as of yet, might do in the next days. Measuring what seems to be the pattern's entry point, I expect a market top of 78500 EUR (90000 $ today), after Wyckoff characteristic ups and downs. Followed by a drop to 43700 EUR (50100 $ today), with minor bull traps. No current arithmetic valuation of this model's accuracy ( below 70%), might do in the next few days.

12 de nov. de 2021

Nota

New lowest point estimation, 39900EUR (45700$ today)

12 de nov. de 2021

Nota

I have come to believe firmly that what happened during the springtime run was a Wyckoff distribution pattern, caused by big institutions trying to accumulate. I believe that we are watching another one of these playing out and while I consider this one to be dissimilar to the previous, it offers itself for study.

The method used for determining price action is watching for similarities in the two graphs and pinpointing what can be considered the distribution's entry point. Then measuring the distance in percentages from the entry point of the previous one to the entry point of this one and adding that percentage to the previous pattern's high and subsequent low. (Price * Difference% + Price).

There will probably be no further mathematical analysis on the correlation of the two patterns, I'm keeping the very close one I see when bringing them together. Also I'm keeping in mind that this pattern should be a little different than the previous one, in order to keep uncertainty to a max. Otherwise it's a very sloppy job by the institutions and one that could prove profitable for retail with the correct tactics.

4 de dez. de 2021

Trade fechado manualmente

Too bad that Evergrande couldn't let us see if this would play out, stay safe during the ride until bear market. So long