Altseason Starts Soon

The Chart above show Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over time, with highlighted patterns and cycles that may be tied to Bitcoin halvings and market trends. Here’s my analysis based on the chart's structure:

Key Observations:

1. Repeated Patterns:
   

• The chart highlights similar phases of Bitcoin dominance decline across three separate cycles, lasting roughly 231 days.
  

• Each phase seems to correspond to a bearish period for Bitcoin dominance, where altcoins gain relative strength.
  

1. Halving Impact:
   

• Vertical lines mark Bitcoin halving dates (green lines), which historically have a significant impact on the crypto market.

• Following halvings, BTC dominance often rises as Bitcoin leads the market in initial rallies.

1. Projection:
   

• The chart projects a decline in dominance after the current rally, extending into mid-to-late 2024.

• A potential drop to ~44%-46% dominance is outlined, indicating a possible altcoin season or broader market rotation.

1. Support and Resistance:
   

• The chart highlights a resistance zone around 62% dominance, which Bitcoin dominance seems to have tested recently.

• A bearish breakout is suggested, aligning with a downward trend in the future.

Possible Interpretation:

• Short-Term View: Bitcoin dominance might continue upward for a while but could face resistance near 60%-62%. If this area holds, a reversal could lead to dominance declining, benefiting altcoins.

• Medium-Term View: If the projection holds, BTC dominance could see a prolonged decline lasting nearly a year, dropping below 50%. This scenario typically coincides with altcoin seasons where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in relative gains.

• Risk Factors:Bitcoin dominance does not always drop due to bullish altcoins; it can also decline during a market-wide sell-off where Bitcoin loses less than altcoins. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates could alter the outcome.