renato_shira

Bitcoin regression curve [REAL]

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
This was NOT drawn by hand. This was calculated based on btc prices from 2010. More than 60 different equations were tested and refined and ranked. This one is the best.

Things to notice about this curve:
  • It is in log scale. So, as expected, we are in a diminishing logarithmic grow
  • The residuals variance(price - regcurve diff) are decreasing over time. This is wanted because the price deviation of btc is expected to lower over time.
  • There are 2 other curves, derivatives of the regression that set resistance and support zones. These curves are gradually narrowing to the regression curve over ~20 years
  • The curve implies that we are very close to the bottom. It may be already in the past
  • If the curve reflects the near future, it's almost impossible that we see a $1k btc price in near future. $2.5k is not that easy too. 

Fun facts:
  • After the price break this curve down, we generally see a local bottom
  • After the price break this curve up, we generally see a re-test