BITCOIN - Cycle Wave Complete? Start of a Supercycle?
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I've never seen a bearish thread on BLX nor have I seen the long term chart with a solid EW count, so here's my offering. This certainly won't be the most popular count on TV, but I think there is a reasonable chance it will be correct to some degree and I'd like to have it on record while Bitcoin is still topping and almost everyone is still looking up to the stars. This is of course not the only possible count, but it does seem to fit well.
My interest for this count came when I realised that in previous bear markets Bitcoin has formed a classic wave 2 zig-zag and wave 4 flat triangle. And then the penny dropped - Price could well be completing a Cycle wave 5 top! This would also mean price is completing a Supercycle wave 1 and here is where the very bearish projection comes in:
In a typical Elliott Wave , an ABC correction will commonly retrace back into the territory of the previous wave 4. This would mean that the Supercycle wave 2 (Cycle ABC ) would likely retrace back into the very large price territory of Cycle wave 4: 19.6K - 3.2K. However to consider also what is common for Bitcoin ; in the two Primary wave corrections (bear markets), price retraced back to the log based Fibonacci ratios of 0.236 in Cycle wave 2 and 0.382 in Cycle wave 4, and so I've approximated a price target between these points.
In regard to time, the Supercycle wave 2 would likely be the more common zig-zag and I've approximately copied the Fibonacci time ratios of the Cycle wave 2.
In combination my price and time projection is (don't get mad now) 5.6K - 1.2K completing around the end of 2023 / start of 2024, which interestingly may be when the next halving is.
This is a very bearish projection and its not my preferred outcome. That said it would eventually provide the chance to buy crypto at a considerable discount.
If you'd like to see a lower degree count of the current bull market ending, it can been seen in my linked "Bitcoin has topped" thread.
My interest for this count came when I realised that in previous bear markets Bitcoin has formed a classic wave 2 zig-zag and wave 4 flat triangle. And then the penny dropped - Price could well be completing a Cycle wave 5 top! This would also mean price is completing a Supercycle wave 1 and here is where the very bearish projection comes in:
In a typical Elliott Wave , an ABC correction will commonly retrace back into the territory of the previous wave 4. This would mean that the Supercycle wave 2 (Cycle ABC ) would likely retrace back into the very large price territory of Cycle wave 4: 19.6K - 3.2K. However to consider also what is common for Bitcoin ; in the two Primary wave corrections (bear markets), price retraced back to the log based Fibonacci ratios of 0.236 in Cycle wave 2 and 0.382 in Cycle wave 4, and so I've approximated a price target between these points.
In regard to time, the Supercycle wave 2 would likely be the more common zig-zag and I've approximately copied the Fibonacci time ratios of the Cycle wave 2.
In combination my price and time projection is (don't get mad now) 5.6K - 1.2K completing around the end of 2023 / start of 2024, which interestingly may be when the next halving is.
This is a very bearish projection and its not my preferred outcome. That said it would eventually provide the chance to buy crypto at a considerable discount.
If you'd like to see a lower degree count of the current bull market ending, it can been seen in my linked "Bitcoin has topped" thread.
Comentário
It looks like my Primary wave 5 top call was correct. The bear market begins.
Comentário
On target so far.
We're into the post FED interest rate cut blow off phase for risk on markets🥳.
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I have many great deep value opportunities ❕
Many Trade Ideas Every Day 📈
Regular videos ✨.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
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