Bitcoin Long - The "Best Case" Scenario

28 de set. de 2021

Disclaimer; this is a long read
Another Disclaimer; this is not one for the traders on a micro-level
Last Disclaimer; the chart here is for proof of concept and data, I don’t expect many will “get” the chart outright

Thought I would take a different view on BTC since we are in a slow period, by looking more closely at not what the price is, but where in time we are. The price is for reference hence the averages and MA’s discussed in broad terms. Despite that I will give an indication on my personal bull case price targets at the end of this spiel.

Price is in no mans land right now, and I think I have a few culprits why that is…

Opinions on stock to flow models aside they do allow for one feature I like – we can see the “closeness” to the halving in a colourful way – with light orange furthest from halving, purple / red for closest. Green we can see sits about half way through and typically is when prices are highest. This all correlates up until this halving….

Currently then bulls find themselves in a bit of a situation. On the one hand the market went “as planned” for the cycle, taking off soon after halving and reaching the 2-year moving average. However rather than chase the moving average further up, we saw what I am now describing as the Wyckoff period. Rather than continue to rally upwards we saw market players sell out, happy to cash in on gains. While that’s normal, the heavy selling and structure of the price action looks to be a considered move by certain actors (or market manipulators if you prefer).

This leads us to now. We are in the “green zone”; we should be euphoric price discovery. Instead, we are in a holding position with either a move up or a move down equally likely in my opinion, ignoring external market noise.

So what happens here and what will the price do now?
*I might think I know what the price will be, but I’m not a financial advisor, and I'm just some guy on the internet. So read knowing that.

So the price “prediction”
We should hold a price of 23K to 120k as of today (late September 2021), and this “band” will trend upwards until the next halving. Two things here you might immediately ask

• (1) That’s such a massive price band that you almost can’t be wrong with guesses like that, and
  
• (2) Were in the green zone now, surely if we arent rallying that means price has failed.
  

In answer to (1) Yes 23K – 120k is massive gap, but I hear a lot of price calls for sub 20k or even sub 10k. Its not going to happen on my trading plan. And if we trend these long-term MA’s upwards, I can project a current price of between 300k and 550k by next halving. Thats a far more interesting price target than the current one, as it allows for more comfortable purchasing decisions.

In answer to (2) Yes price failed to live up to the PA of previous years. It would be easy to dismiss that as BTC completing its cycle. But keep in mind how fast we rallied (for reference, we were only 21% into the cycle when we peaked. The previous cycle peaked when we were 38% in), and the types of players involved in stopping that rally early - hence Wyckoff distribution - rather than the ‘fomo’ or parabolic structures we saw previously. With this much price potential in the cycle and the types of institution and size of whale involved, its not hard to imagine a long play scenario of sell offs and accumulation up to the above 300k - 500k target.

The bearish outlook is easy to see – price peaked, and the cycle is done. The bull case might be much harder to see. But I ask myself this question - if it was easy to see everyone would be wealthy in the end, and in our world that just cant happen.

What do you think? Is the cycle cooked or are we in for some seriously extended bull market cycle?