PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 FEB 2023 Expiry

9 de fev. de 2023

Looking at the opening 30 minutes i seriously thought today's price action is really going to be awesome. I was fully loaded with a 41000:40900 debit ratio that would have made a lot of money if BANKNIFTY crossed the 40900 barrier.
And for a moment i seriously thought we will have deeper cuts, but quite unsurprisingly bank nifty stopped falling at 09.45. The open was right at the resistance level of 41629 & the fall was 0.9% ~ 375pts in 30mts.

From 09.45 to 13.40 we had a sideways move that failed to create option mispricing. So this entire week we had a low volatility, low premium expiry.

Bank nifty started picking up momentum after 13.25, again the same ended just before the resistance zone of 41629. The upmove was 0.78% ~ 324pts. 

To make some money today, i had to exit and reenter the same strike price multiple times. I could not afford to short a nearer ATM strike due to the fear of a big move. So i had to time the exit and re-entry properly to catch the small price swings.

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The 15mts TF is again showing sideways momentum, but the downside is clearly getting protected. If BANKNIFTY is able to take out the nearest resistance we may really have a good upmove.

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1hr TF is not showing bullishness yet - its kind of tricky to take a trade now. In case of a breakout the momentum is going to be so strong that the jump in premiums will be multi fold.