PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 FEB 2023
A kind of boring price action today, except for the opening 30mts we literally had a cool & relaxing day today.
BANKNIFTY opened inline at 41530 made some up downs for 5 consecutive candles showing indecisiveness & lack of direction. But i was still fearful to deploy short straddle or iron fly thats because the premiums in the options were already quite low.
India vix was rising but bank nifty had a falling volatility - quite a dangerous situation because if
NIFTY keeps falling further - the algos will ride on that further increasing the volatility. This will spill over to BANKNIFTY & cause more troubles.
So i just sat the day out - did not take any position in F&O.
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Our views for the 15mts TF hasnt changed from 3rd either. Chart is not suggesting up or down moves so far. The resistances and supports if holds good then we might have further flattish trades too.
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1hr TF view has also not changed from the last session. The double bottom pattern is still intact & it may signal a short upside at least till the 42800 (start of fall level). However ifBANKNIFTY stays below the current price for some time then the double bottom pattern will lose credibility & we can start looking for bearish ideas.
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Among theBANKNIFTY components we had some drama today, lets analyze
HDFCBANK had a down day today, not serious damage but what may look like an interim double top in 10mts TF with the last top on 01 FEB. The bottom level at 1590 levels are equally strong & we are looking at a triple bottom at this level.
ICICIBANK was trading with a negative bias, 2 instances of pull back at 13.15 & 15.05 helped it reduce the loss. Again we are looking at a strong resistance at 869 levels.
SBIN was reacting to the QoQ results - the reaction was muted. We had a 3.9% intraday swing from HOD to LOD in the opening 20mts from then we had a flattish day. The gap up opening would have helped lot of people to exit their positions from last week.
AXISBANK had a strange opening candle, again a 3.15% swing from LOD to HOD and then a gradual fall to the flattish territory. I am not quite sure how much the 1% loan book exposure to the ADANI group really got priced in
KOTAKBANK fell the first & 2nd candle, the chart might say its swing was much weirder than SBI or AXIS, but it wasnt. Kotak is still at its multiyear SR at 1780 to 1800 levels.
INDUSINDBK was the top outperformer on 
SENSEX today, ended with a gain of 2.32%. But most importantly its the only main bank that is yet to catch its all time highs after the covid fall. So we have another 600+ pts to go for that !
BANKNIFTY opened inline at 41530 made some up downs for 5 consecutive candles showing indecisiveness & lack of direction. But i was still fearful to deploy short straddle or iron fly thats because the premiums in the options were already quite low.India vix was rising but bank nifty had a falling volatility - quite a dangerous situation because if
NIFTY keeps falling further - the algos will ride on that further increasing the volatility. This will spill over to BANKNIFTY & cause more troubles.So i just sat the day out - did not take any position in F&O.
---
Our views for the 15mts TF hasnt changed from 3rd either. Chart is not suggesting up or down moves so far. The resistances and supports if holds good then we might have further flattish trades too.
---
1hr TF view has also not changed from the last session. The double bottom pattern is still intact & it may signal a short upside at least till the 42800 (start of fall level). However if
BANKNIFTY stays below the current price for some time then the double bottom pattern will lose credibility & we can start looking for bearish ideas.---
Among the
BANKNIFTY components we had some drama today, lets analyzeHDFCBANK had a down day today, not serious damage but what may look like an interim double top in 10mts TF with the last top on 01 FEB. The bottom level at 1590 levels are equally strong & we are looking at a triple bottom at this level.ICICIBANK was trading with a negative bias, 2 instances of pull back at 13.15 & 15.05 helped it reduce the loss. Again we are looking at a strong resistance at 869 levels.SBIN was reacting to the QoQ results - the reaction was muted. We had a 3.9% intraday swing from HOD to LOD in the opening 20mts from then we had a flattish day. The gap up opening would have helped lot of people to exit their positions from last week.AXISBANK had a strange opening candle, again a 3.15% swing from LOD to HOD and then a gradual fall to the flattish territory. I am not quite sure how much the 1% loan book exposure to the ADANI group really got priced inKOTAKBANK fell the first & 2nd candle, the chart might say its swing was much weirder than SBI or AXIS, but it wasnt. Kotak is still at its multiyear SR at 1780 to 1800 levels.INDUSINDBK was the top outperformer on SENSEX today, ended with a gain of 2.32%. But most importantly its the only main bank that is yet to catch its all time highs after the covid fall. So we have another 600+ pts to go for that !
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